Performance Analysis

BILL YOU ARE DUMB

2007-06-26T23:24:00.000-07:00

Mike (SF): What's the best case scenario for the Celts draft? Bill Simmons: Celts take Brewer, then package Wally, Gerald Green and next year's No. 1 to Utah for Kirilenko.

Bill Simmons: Imagine a team with Rondo, Kirilenko and Brewer defensively (three A-plus defenders), plus Pierce (a really good team defender) and Jefferson (the weak link, but at least he's athletic)? Now that's a team that makes sense to me.

Oh lord.

Brewer's nothing special. They had better take Yi or Brandan Wright. Bill you are sooooo dumb. Read the smart guy on your own website before running your mouth.

Unless the move results in Garnett, don't bother making a move.

A lineup of

C Jefferson
PF Brandan Wright
SF Paul Pierce
SG Gerald Green
PG Delonte West

would easily make the playoffs in their conference. Pierce will complain but this team will be competitive right away.

The middle of the first round is getting very interesting, as plenty of teams don't value their picks properly in this LOADED draft. Julian Wright will be a fringe all-star for years, and he may not go until pick 15. Thaddeus Young is another surefire NBA difference maker. The Hawks would be wise to take him at 11.

NBA DRAFT 2007 BOOYAKASHA

2007-06-21T01:39:00.000-07:00

We're back for another NBA draft, the most anticipated one in the history of the NBA. On a larger level the West is only looking to get better, as they will have the top two players in the last five years of drafts entering their conference.

1. Portland Trailblazers

Will Select: Greg Oden
Should Select: Greg Oden
Wild Card: None

Oden is the consensus best prospect in the draft. His medical concerns aside, none are potentially career-threatening.

2. Seattle Sonics

Will Select: Kevin Durant
Should Select: Kevin Durant
Wild Card: None

Bill Simmons like the image of Kevin Durant as you're driving to Vegas. Thank God Lenny Wilkens didn't have to make a choice here. He gets the best player in the draft, but their offseason is not over as they won't be retaining Rashard Lewis and will build off a core of Luke Ridnour/Ray Allen/Durant/Chris Wilcox/Robert Swift that would be a 50 win team every year in the East. Neither Vegas or Seattle is in that conference.

3. Atlanta Hawks

Will Select: Brandan Wright, F, UNC
Should Select: Wright
Wild Card: Mike Conley Jr.

I really don't see how taking a guy who is annually going to be in the top ten point guards in the league is a bad idea. Conley can't miss, but neither can Brandan. They got lucky and got the third pick. If they pick Horford, I mean, now they have Al Horford. You gotta either fill a need or take the best available. It's going to be TOUGH to pass on Conley. They'll be good next year in the craptacular east.

4. Memphis

Will Select: Brandan Wright if he's there, if not, Mike Conley Jr.
Won't Select: Yi Jinlian. They already have Gasol.
Wild Card: Corey Brewer suddenly enters the discussion. Let's look at their team:

PG: No one of note
SG: Mike Miller
SF: Rudy Gay
PF: Pau Gasol
C: Fuck all

I love Rudy Gay. Looking at this, they'd have to be pretty dumb to pass on Conley, wouldn't they? Chris Wallace is known for, um, thinking outside the box.

5. Boston Celtics:

A huge fucking disappointment. I think they'll trade the pick, but...

Will Take: They will take Brandan Wright if he is there or Conley if he is there but he won't be there. I see Noah as another option.
Should Take: Wright.
Wild Card: Corey Brewer

6. Bucks:

Simmons's trade for the Bucks was this pick and Andrew Bogut for Gasol. That's much too high a price to pay for Gasol, as Bogut is a proven regular with star potential and this pick should be a very good player.

Will Take: The way I have it working out they get Al Horford, and while that doesn't fill a need, whatever. They'd kill for Conley. This may end up necessitating a trade.

7. T-Wolves

Unlike last year where they had to give up stuff to take Randy Foye, the Wolves now get the bottom of the top tier talent.

will take: Yi Jinlian
should take: Corey Brewer if available. Doubtful he will be but he'd be a perfect fit.
Wild Card: Spencer Hawes

8. Bobcats

Will Take: Noah, a guy they've liked for awhile. He would have gone No. 1 last year by the way.
Should Take: This is good value for Julian Wright, a future All-Star.
Wild Card: They have a lot of good players and could move this pick for a veteran talent. Me, I'd shop Paul Pierce for this pick. He's a gamer who would be on a stacked team. Celtics do what Portland did last year and get two top players from the bestest draft.

9. Bulls

I hate Jerry Krause and I hate that organization. That they didn't win the East was a fucking embarrassment. Now Paxson will try to be cool and probably end up making a disastrous move. They have assets and no need for this pick. If someone drops, this could be an interesting day for the Bulls.

10. Sac Kings

Will Take: Jeff Green
Should take: Jeff Green is a fine player. Go Kings.

11. Atlanta Hawks

They get someone juicy in their dream scenario. I see disaster instead.

Will Take: Spencer Hawes

12. 76ers

This is a pure upside apology pick. Rodney Carney didn't exactly work out.

Will Take: Al Thornton, Florida State, Forward

13. NO Hornets

They need not Acie Law, but they could darn sure still use him.

Will Take: Acie Law IV
Should Take: Thornton should he drop as a Desmond Mason replacement who could play the 4 sometimes.

14. Clippers

Chad Ford thinks that the Clippers will move this pick, and gives Julian Wright a chance of being there. He won't be.

Wild Card: Jeff Green certainly isn't getting past this pick and one of these teams could do something fun like take Sean Williams. The drop could happen.

15. Pistons

Will Take: Rodney Stuckey

16. Washington Wizards

The Wiz need everything but a shooting guard. Go Agent Zero. For now, a point guard prospect will do.

Wild Card: Tiago Splitter

17. New Jersey Nets

They actually don't have any pressing needs but to find another rotation big, so Sean Williams does make a bit of sense. On the other hand, that's not exactly a Rod Thorn type pick.

18. Golden State Warriors

Chris Mullin is still in shell shock. Josh McRoberts makes sense for this franchise.

Will Take: Josh McRoberts.

19. L.A. Lakers

The Lakers may not even have people preparing for the draft. We just don't know. Last two years they bucked conventional wisdom to take the highly rated Bynum and took a fringe talent in Jordan Farmar. Farmar could still improve.

Will Take: Thaddeus Young is an exciting young forward whose middle name is coincidentally "Kobe Insurance."

20. The Miami Heat

They hate draft picks and international players. You'd absolutely have to think Sean Williams would interest them and I expect that's who they'll go with.

Will Take: Sean Williams
Wild Card: If their player isn't there, move the pick. This would be a great pick to snatch up as I think major talent will be available here.

21. 76ers

Picking again, they can roll the dice.

Will Take: Jason Smith, Colorado, PF

22. Bobcats

Pick will be traded, otherwise they gamble on overseas talent that won't arrive for a few years.

23. Knicks

Will Take: Wilson Chandler, F

24. Suns

The Suns already have a pretty intact roster, and were one of the biggest losers of the lottery.

They'd rather have their good player in 2008 anyway. Kerr's going to lean on his scouting department for this one, and I could see him actually moving up if there was a big he liked.

25. Utah

Could see them picking up Morris Almond, unless they're convinced that C.J. Miles is for real. They could really use a decent backup center here. Nick Fazekas would actually be an interesting pick.

26. Houston

I think they like Taurean Green with this pick. That takes care of all the Florida people, right? Is Lee Humphrey eligible? I'm a lazy draft maven.

27. Detroit

Aaron Brooks is an option, sure, but Daqean Cook is kinda their type of player in some ways.

28. San Antonio

The best team in the league has one clear need and that's at backup point guard. They'd die if Acie Law did a tumbling act, but it's hard to see them missing on Javaris Crittenden or Gabe Pruitt. That's a sick draft when those guys dropped because teams didn't need guards.

29. Phoenix.

They will take a player at one of these picks. Rudy Fernandez fits the bill, he's an upgrade on James Jones.

30. 76ers

might still get some good talent here. This draft

IS

CRAZY

21.

21.

MOCK DRAFT BY PECOTA, POSTIONAL PLAYERS

2007-02-09T23:49:00.000-08:00

According to Keith Woolner's VORP stat...

1. Pujols Albert SLN .349 EqA 81.4 VORP
2. Cabrera Miguel FLO .323 68.8
3. Wright David NYN .315 60.2
4. Hafner Travis CLE .339 58.4
5. Berkman Lance HOU .329 57.8
6. Howard Ryan PHI NL .323 57.5
7. Mauer Joe MIN .321 53.4
8. Ortiz David BOS .330 53.4

Taking one of these eight guys, it's hard to go wrong. It really is.

9. Beltran Carlos NYN .310 53.2
10. Jeter Derek NYA .305 50.1
11. Guerrero Vladimir LAA .323 50.1
12. Utley Chase PHI .295 49.0
13. Rodriguez Alex NYA .319 48.0

The second tier stars. A-Rod's projection is unnecessarily pessimistic. Look for a big year. PECOTA loves Vlad this season. It's projecting him to lead the league in hits. I don't expect a 50 VORP from Jeter. I really don't, his power is gone.

14. Zimmerman Ryan WAS .293 47.9
15. Ramirez Aramis CHN .299 46.0
16. Tejada Miguel BAL .296 46.0
17. Guillen Carlos DET .306 45.9

The left side of the infield says hello. Zimmerman is a good pairing with a slugger like Ortiz or Howard in that second round. Tejada I don't like because the Orioles will be out of it, and he'll play sloppy. It helps that he plays everyday. Guillen is no lock to be on the level of these other guys, but he'll probably still be underrated in your draft. He's more of a third round pick in my eyes, though.

18. Soriano Alfonso CHN .296 43.9
19. Bay Jason PIT .308 43.6
20. McCann Brian ATL .296 43.4

McCann isn't worth a second rounder, Soriano will be overrated, and Bay's a leftfielder who gets walks on a bad team. He's no first rounder either.

Players I'd rather have include Jose Reyes, Michael Young, Jimmy Rollins, Manny Ramirez and Teixiera.

TOP KEEPERS according to PECOTA.

2007-02-09T23:35:00.000-08:00

Top keepers according to Upside:

Last First Team Lg Age Pos PA AB R
Pujols Albert SLN NL 27 1B 666 560 129
Mauer Joe MIN AL 24 C 623 539 107

The two best franchise players in the game.

Wright David NYN NL 24 3B 635 549 108
Cabrera Miguel FLO NL 24 3B 675 580 116

Upside likes Wright slightly better, which is a testament to how much it loves Wright. Wright's a streak hitter, and it looks like he can be a little more consistent at the plate. I'd still take Cabrera over him.

McCann Brian ATL NL 23 C 533 475 76
Zimmerman Ryan WAS NL 22 3B 655 590 95

McCann's year was over his head, but there are no fantasy catchers out there, and he's a competitive advantage. With that said, he's no Mauer.

Kendrick Howie LAA AL 23 2B 554 518 77
Gordon Alex KCA AL 23 3B 618 541 93
Sizemore Grady CLE AL 24 CF 679 597 104

Three more very young players with their best baseball ahead of them. Kendrick is not getting the props he deserves. He's a once in a generation average hitter.

Cano RobinsonNYA AL 24 2B 573 533 76
Tejada Miguel BAL AL 31 SS 657 604 91
Ramirez Hanley FLO NL 23 SS 642 577 101

The system clearly loves shortstops who can rake. Nobody hit for average like Cano has and not been awesome. I think the system overrates him--he won't hit .340 again, and he would never have hit in the first place if it wasn't for the Yanks' insane lineup.

Guillen Carlos DET AL 31 SS 566 503 90
Peralta Jhonny CLE AL 25 SS 607 540 79
Beltran Carlos NYN NL 30 CF 612 521 101
Hafner Travis CLE AL 30 DH 613 508 106
Howard Ryan PHI NL 27 1B 652 557 109
Jeter Derek NYA AL 33 SS 662 585 110
Reyes Jose NYN NL 24 SS 663 613 101

It's somewhat surprising that Reyes isn't higher, and looking at his physical tools, it's possible to imagine a 40-40 type of player, which would make him once of the top three keepers in baseball. He shouldn't go before Ortiz, A-Rod, and Pujols in your draft, though.

Martin Russell LAN NL 24 C 501 437 67
Bianchi Jeffrey KCA AL 20 SS 469 416 57
Guerrero Vladim LAA AL 31 RF 637 579 105
Longoria Evan TBA AL 21 3B 546 502 67

The system gets fooled by top prospects who have a brief minor league performance that rates as exceptional. Martin may be rated as a sleeper--he's a top catcher, and his performance could exceed McCann's in 2007. Guerrero I'm actually surprised is even this high--his body type and physicality don't bode well for him as he drifts into his thirties. He's a unique hitter who may not follow any established career path.

Longoria won't make the majors in 2007, but there's every reason for Jorge Cantu to be very, very afraid.

Young Chris ARI NL 23 CF 526 458 85
Berkman Lance HOU NL 31 1B 628 518 111
Rodriguez Alex NYA AL 31 3B 651 555 108
Teixeira Mark TEX AL 27 1B 684 594 107
Bay Jason PIT NL 28 LF 644 544 106
Martinez Victor CLE AL 28 C 593 520 76
Utley Chase PHI NL 28 2B 657 576 103

Everybody loves Chris Young, but rating his potential over Utley's is tough. They play a similar skill position and I'd rather have Utley's power. He was really tearing it up last year, and he's proven a durable player who doesn't miss games. He should go in the top 7 picks of any draft, keeper or no.

Victor Martinez is a catcher who can rake, but his comparables bode too well. He's not on Mauer's level. Bay and Teixiera and A-Rod you knew about.

Pedroia Dustin BOS AL 23 2B 554 491 71
Casilla Alexi MIN AL 22 SS 613 554 94
Young Michael TEX AL 30 SS 664 604 95
Fielder Prince MIL NL 23 1B 575 501 87

More insane prospect crushes, but finds Pedroia to be an accomplished regular. PECOTA also loves Prince

FLASHBACK

2006-08-03T20:52:00.000-07:00

The Beast Within

Japan and America have completely different versions of fighting to the pain

. . . by Alex Carnevale

This summer a masked wrestler was elected to the Iwate Prefecture Assembly in Tokyo. Masanori Murakawa, who wrestles under the name The Great Sasuke, won the largest percentage of the vote. In Japan fighting superstars are highly electable, yes, but they are also wildly popular. The Great Sasuke is still a highly suicidal performer for the Michinoku Pro Wrestling promotionat 33 it is more than likely that he has the back problems of a 50-year-old. If his contemporaries in the world of worked (that is, fake) pro-wrestling are any indication, he will be lucky to avoid a wheelchair. Even -so, he does have his political career to look forward to.

In Japan, pro-wrestling is called puroresu. The linguistic difference is significant. Whereas in America Vince McMahons World Wrestling Entertainment (WWE) is a freak show in which even the most devoted fans take the wrestlers soap-opera antics as seriously as the California electorate, pro-wrestling and mixed martial arts are the biggest businesses in Japan. While critics of violence in the United States often focus on a sport like Ultimate Fighting's impact on society, Japan has never suffered such rigid, Protestant concerns. It would be a stretch to say that the worship of national icons like Kazushi Sakuraba is a leftover vestigial resemblance to samurai culture, but at the very least, the Japanese don't mind blood.

WHICH SIDE ARE YOU ON, BOY?

Mixed martial arts (or MMA, as the sport is commonly referred to by insiders) is still a very new sport in Japan and in America. The concept under which most international fighting organizations now operate allows a range of disciplines to compete under a uniform set of rules. Despite the fact that some fighting styles like Bushido have hundreds, perhaps thousands of years of history under their belt, when it comes to the top competition in the world, it's often hard to predict how styles will interact with each other. This is the fun. In Japan, there are two dominant fighting organizations, Pride Fighting Championships and K-1. Pride offers a blend of different styles, whereas K-1 mainly operates under kickboxing-like rules. Both companies are making amazing box office returns that dwarf the profit of Japanese and American worked pro-wrestling (which are currently on a downtrend).

The Japanese have a different conception of the authenticity of professional fighting. There are plenty of people in the United States who think boxing is worked in one form or another, but no debate really questions its legitimacy. In Japanese culture, real fights and fake ones often take place on the same card. And while some are easy to tell apart, other fights aren't. Worked companies like New Japan Pro-Wrestling will often send their wrestlers to fight a real fight, with the idea that if they beat an accomplished martial artist, the win will serve as a catapult to stardom. This is a weird inversion of what Japanese in the U.S. used to call kayfabe.

The concept of kayfabe originated when worked U.S. pro-wrestling was confined to a variety of smaller, regional territories. The local product had a devoted following and for the most part, people believed that the wrestling was real. That is hard to imagine now when the only real national company in the U.S., the WWE, has storylines where one of the main characters is supposedly undead, but it is true. During the reign of these regional territories, before the McMahon monopoly began, wrestlers were strictly fined and often fired if they didn't live up to their reputations as tough guys outside the ring. In addition, if the good guys, or faces were seen with the bad guys, heels, all hell would break loose. Such a revelation could kill business for years.

BOB SAPP HAS A POSSE

Japanese audiences have always preferred showmanship to veracity in their worked pro-wrestling restrictive model, as long as the in-ring wrestling was hard-assed and realistic. They loved Andre the Giant in the 1970s in both real and worked fights, and now they have a new giant as a national hero: a former pro football player named Bob Sapp.

Sapp is a huge black man who once knocked out William "The Refrigerator Perry" in FX's short-lived Toughman series. Before becoming one of the hugest celebrities in Japan, he considered applying to be a mortuary assistant. Now his name is plastered all over Japan, and he is known in almost every household. He is the pitchman for televisions and noodles. Originally from Colorado, Sapp has biceps like your mom has ass cheeks. He's like a tyrannosaurus with a sly and gracious personality who you invite on talk shows to tell stories.

Yet, in the context of the Japanese media, Sapp is presented often in a racist form. Sometimes after a match he'll eat bananas to cheering applause. In other advertisements, Sapp plays a pimp with some hookers, and equipped with all the subtlety of Shaft, he sells electronics. But if that were the extent of his charisma, he wouldn't be selling out Japan's largest arena, the Tokyo Dome.

Sapp illustrates the challenges and rewards of MMA and its promotion. This may help answer the obvious question: if Sapp can draw millions of Japanese fans, why isnt he a mainstream star here in America? Even more perplexing is that Sapp has recently set up what should be an attention-grabbing match with Mike Tyson, which has gotten no notice whatsoever in the U.S. This will make big box office dollars overseas, but will probably just hit Sportscenter here and never make money.

PAY-PER-VIEW COCKFIGHTING

In the U.S., only one company, begun in 1993, has attempted to promote mixed martial arts as a sport on a national scale. The name of that organization is Ultimate Fighting Championships (UFC). Unlike boxing and pro-wrestlings four-sided ring, UFC uses an octagonal cage. The cage is actually much safer than ring ropes, which often tie up fighters. The cage itself has reinforced a perception among politicians and TV pundits like Tony Kornheiser of ESPN's Pardon the Interruption that MMA is nothing more than raw, animalistic spectacle. Kornheiser, who knows nothing of what he speaks, calls UFC human cockfighting. In reality, MMA fighters are truly the baddest men on the planet. Their training schedules are superhuman. The legendary American Don Frye once wrestled a match with a broken neck. All but the very top fighters work second jobs to train to do what they love.

In the early days of MMA promotions, the quality of fights was low. The Gracies, a family in which most of the males trained in Brazilian jiu-jitsu, dominated the sport here and abroad. At 60 and 180 pounds, Royce Gracie was one of the smaller fighters, but he was the sports best, the toast of the fighting world. What the Gracies would simply do was pop an arm out of its socket with a wicked arm bar and occasionally break out the triangle choke, cutting off their opponents windpipe with a tangle of hands and feet and get the tap-out the scientific way.

American Greco-Roman wrestlers have also had some success in Ultimate Fighting, and as fighters began to study others when the sport hit in zenith in the U.S., evolution of all styles began to speed up. One of the strangest things about MMA is that its best competitors often dont look like the bouncers on Miami Beach. The current American light-heavyweight champion, Randy Couture, looks about as unstoppable as the invulnerable Judith Butler.

The most dangerous man in the world, by the current consensus, is a former Croatian intelligence agent named Mirko Filivopic, who looks like one of your father's friends. Milton, the one with yacht and crew cut. A trained kickboxer, he has given more concussions to the jaw than you have teeth to lose. No one in the business can agree on exactly how the sport will continue to evolve, but Bob Sapp's popularity is one barometer. He is a new kind of super-athlete that may draw the interest of a casual fan.

Pride Fighting Championships, which now promotes pay-per-view events in the U.S., has more cash flow due to its Japanese success, and now regularly features the top fighters in the world. Their upcoming PPV event, Pride Final Conflict 2003, features the semifinals in Prides middleweight tournament. Of the four best middleweights in the world, two are Americans. And yet the names Chuck Liddell and Quinton Jackson (who should be wildly popular just for his use of profanity) are known to only a small percentage, hardcore fans that follow the sport via the Internet or newsletters like Wrestling Observer.

BLOODY BRILLIANT

The lack of success for mixed martial arts in the U.S. comes exactly at a time when its stars should be most palatable to American audiences, given the fighter's skill levels and American backgrounds. Just as today's basketball players have ten times the talent of their predecessors from twenty years ago, the same is true in the world of mixed martial arts. And that is partly how an insane monster like Sapp can compete with the best in the world. Even though he has the stamina of a 12-year-old, his unreal athleticism makes him a competitor. He could captivate American audiences if given a chance, which depends almost entirely on whether television will allow UFC to promote its product.

A brief trial run on Fox Sports Net that went nowhere not withstanding, Ultimate Fighting has been kept off national television because its ratings potential is largely unknown, and it has, in the past, been a politically tenuous matter. Senator John McCain (R-AZ), after seeing a tape of UFC in 1993, led a campaign to get mixed martial arts banned across the country, and succeeded in several states. His objection was over the danger of the sport, though only boxing has ever killed a participant in-ring.

So here's to hoping that America can get past its inhibitions to the spectacle, fun, and athleticism of mixed martial arts. With boxing on the outs, and tennis still boring no matter how good looking the people who play it are, America needs a one-on-one sport. Let them have blood.

--ALEX CARNEVALE

CELTS DEAL NO. 7 PICK, MORE DRAFT COVERAGE TO COME

2006-06-28T15:29:00.000-07:00

The Celtics dealt the No. 7 pick, Dan Dickau, and Raef LaFrentz to the Portland Trailblazers for Sebastian Telfair and Theo Ratliff.

While I said the Celtics would trade the pick, I was hoping for a better package than this.

On the surface, I see the wisdom of this deal. Ainge clears LaFrentz' contract off the book, possibly adds a rotation player with an expiring contract. If he really thought Telfair was better than any player he could get with the No. 7 pick, this is a genius move.

The problem is, if the Hawks take Shelden Williams one of the top 6 (Morrison, Bargnani, Thomas, Roy, Aldridge, and Gay) drops to the Celtics. And when that happens, they have a more valuable commodity than Sebastian Telfair.

Moreover, I hate Sebastian Telfair. Don't get me wrong, he's a nice guy. He's only 21. This season his PER of 13.02 wasn't that bad for a 21 year old. But it's one thing if you have a 6-5 point guard posting that kind of a PER. If we had PECOTA for basketball players, it could easily tell us that Telfair, being undersized and a poor shooter, may improve as a player, but he'll never be Chris Paul, who posted a PER of 22.14 last year. Guess how old he is? 21.

But whatever, it's not like they dealt Gerald Green or Al Jefferson yet. If they do that, then I'll be screaming my head off in a paper bag.

And just so I don't tempt fate, deal Big Al, fine. But do not move Gerald Green.

THE SUMMER BELONGS TO US

2006-06-22T07:39:00.000-07:00

The USA has lost to Ghana and we have to say we are glad if only because it means we will never again have to listen to Alexi Lalas' jingoistic xenophobia. The ACLU must investigate!

With just a few weeks of statistical data to digest, we here at PA have developed an understanding of soccer that surpasses every European nation. What we came away with was truly staggering. Make no mistake about this: Performance Analysis is a science, it is cold and brutal, precise and heartbreaking. You need only ask me why I want Bernie Williams to retire despite his Hall of Fame career and pleasant demeanor and you will know the pain of knowing too much.

The one place where performance analysis struggles is in the playoffs, as the Truth that is sample size is sacrificed so ESPN can continue to produce highlights set to Aerosmith's "Dream On". However misleading simple observation can be (Is Soriano really a star?) at the World Cup, it reveals an obvious difference between this and the fairer sports. Ironically, it was an American player who gave the best example of this disparity. Everytime a soccer player goes down, he clutches his leg and gives his best CG on Riverside Ave. face. What is the deal? If Mark Messier gave up the puck if front of his own net and then fell to the ice trying to draw a penalty instead of getting up and contesting or at least pulling down the opponent, he would never be allowed to put on a jersey again. Alexi Kovolov was admonished for weeks for a similar offense two years back.

And yet Claudio Reyna gets mugged in front of his own goal, goes down, gives up the goal, gets taken off on a stretcher (only to return to the field 5 minutes later) and all they can say is that he has never been subbed out before!

I'll be enjoying the next three summers all the more after this debacle - no dives, no small samples

2006 NBA MOCK DRAFT

2006-06-19T10:47:00.000-07:00

2006 NBA Mock Draft

Our reputation as preeminent talent evaluators, as we have mentioned before, knows no bounds. One time we got asked to name the top ten curlers in the world, and we did it, and we didn't even know what curling was.

In the case of the NBA, we have to admit that three talent evaluators may top us: Chad Ford, John Hollinger, and Danny Ainge. Despite Mark Cuban's insanity, Chad is the most interesting writer about NBA prospects out there (certainly far better than SI's collection of morons). Chad reports everything, and loves to be in the know. Reading him for me is very similar to reading Peter Gammons, in that over time you grow to understand the subtext of everything they say, and what's true as opposed to what just came out of Theo Epstein's gorilla suit.

All talent evaluation improves over time, and the latest report out of the combine that Chad so awesomely got access to says a lot. It says that Adam Morrison and Marcus Williams are TERRIBLE athletes, and have the potential to drop in this draft. It says that J.J. Redick may not be as bad an athlete as we think, and that Ronnie Brewer is a stud in the making.

In the case of the draft, the talent at the top of the draft is very muddled. This problem has its cause in the fact that is very difficult to compare a college guy like Shelden Williams who is already the best player he is going to be, with a guy like Tyrus Thomas, who may not even have touched the beginning of his potential at 19 years old. Plus, it's still difficult to judge international players who face inconsistent competition.

With that said, the teams with the highest picks seem to have fairly clear-cut needs, making the draft tougher to pick as we go along. Here's my take on what's going to happen -- and I hope to be at MSG when it does...

1. Toronto Raptors

SHOULD PICK: Andrea Bargnani

WILL PICK: Bargnani

When Bryan Colangelo took the helm in Toronto, I wonder what he thought of the organization he inherited. While nobody ever said former GM Rob Babcock was the brightest tool in the shed, the Raptors have a number of interesting pieces that make them a team with one of the most promising futures in the Eastern Conference. Chris Bosh is a franchise-caliber player, and the value that Charlie Villenueva has shows you how important it is to draft the best possible player regardless of need. With bust Rafael Araujo turfed, the Raptors will pass on LaMarcus Aldridge's low athleticism and Tyrus Thomas's insanely awesome version of the same. Bargnani can contribute soon, is the best fit for the Raps, and is white. He's going No. 1.

2. Chicago Bulls

SHOULD PICK: Tyrus Thomas

WILL PICK: Thomas.

The Bulls don't have a particularly strong need, they're an easy playoff team going into next season. They can afford to draft on potential, and having a Tyrus-Tyson frontcourt is the kind of blessing you can't afford to turn down. Thomas is an impossible matchup and an effective scorer. He can jump so high it scares you, and from the makeup point of view, they don't get any tougher. Some mocks have him dropping, but I don't see it. The guy's 19, he'll get it at some point.

3. Charlotte Bobcats

WILL DRAFT: Adam Morrison

SHOULD DRAFT: LaMarcus Aldridge

According to Chad Ford, "The Bobcats' biggest need is a swingman who can shoot the rock." Actually, there is no position at which the Bobcats couldn't stand to improve outside of point guard, where Raymond Felton appears to be able to hold down the job. Okafor's tendency towards injury worries you -- plus, you can never get too big or have too many low post scorers. The Bobcats like Rudy Gay also, but I think this is too high for him.

I believe the sure-to-be disastrous move to make Michael Jordan head honcho signals Morrison is the pick here. They know Portland wants him with the next pick, he fills a needed role, and the Bobcats definitely need a scorer. I'd personally rather have Jermaine O'Neal than a worse defending Wally Szczerbiak. Maybe Jordan will make the right move, but I wouldn't count on it.

4. Portland Trailblazers

SHOULD PICK: Aldridge

WILL PICK: Aldridge

Is there a more retarded organization in sports than the Trailblazers? Blessed with a once devoted fanbase, a lovely metropolis, and awesome draft positions, under the helm of GM John Nash (he now works in a Dunkin' Donuts if I'm not mistaken) the Blazers drafting record is less than stellar. Martell Webster with the sixth pick, passing on Villenueva? Yeesh. Taking Sebastian Telfair with the 13th pick when Al Jefferson was available? Not good. Passing on young bigs with skills in favor of high school guards is not my favorite drafting strategy, and it hasn't worked out for the Blazers.

Nate McMillan loves Brandon Roy, but he's a reach with this pick. Finally, you have to think they'll take the big with upside, and if Aldridge is available here, I don't think they'll be dumb enough to pass. I have been wrong before on this account, however.

5. Atlanta Hawks

SHOULD PICK: Rudy Gay

WILL PICK: Brandon Roy

I know what you're saying -- draft ANOTHER swingman? Are you CRAZY? After passing on Chris Paul last year to take Marvin Williams, I doubt the Hawks will go in this direction again.

But they should. With the trade market as crazy as it's likely to be this summer, and with the Hawks able to either sit pat or make a move to vaunt themselves into contention, the front office should just take the best available talent and see what happens. This gives them the option of moving Childress, Williams or Gay in a trade for Iverson or Jermaine O'Neal should they want to move in that direction, not that I think they should.

Let's look at it this way: Brandon Roy is probably ready to come in and contribute in the NBA. He'll be 22 by the time the NBA season starts, and he could easily help a contending team (making him appeal to the Bulls at #2).

But Roy isn't an outside shooter and probably never will be. If this makes him the poor man's Dwayne Wade, that's probably not so bad, but Gay has all the potential in the world. Sure, he doesn't play much defense and has no prayer of helping a contending team. But when he fills out his body, he'll be scary in every facet of the game. If I were the Hawks, I'd roll the dice to take him and move Childress.

6. Minnesota Timberwolves

SHOULD TAKE: The best player that drops to them.

WILL TAKE: Rudy Gay

You have to feel bad for Kevin McHale. Who knew such a great player would become such a great fuck-up? After costing the franchise a No. 1 pick that could have netted a superstar by playing tongue hockey with Joe Smith, McHale gets the No. 6 pick in a draft he's sure to screw up.

According to CF, "The Wolves are hoping that Gay, Aldridge or Thomas slips to them here." Um, yeah. Throw Roy in there, too. My predictions have Gay dropping here, and if that happens, Rex Chapman will acquire the biggest boner of his young life.

7. Boston Celtics

SHOULD TAKE: Randy Foye

WILL TAKE: The best player that drops to them. I think they'll trade this pick.

With not much available at No. 7, I'd take a gamble at Foye. His combine scores were impressive, and he can help the Celts immediately. If they don't have a good handle on Foye, then you might as well roll the dice with a guy like Bradley C Patrick O'Bryant if you end up keeping the pick. Ainge will draft best available regardless of need, and you just know something freaky is going to happen like last year when they snapped up Gerald Green. Tyrus Thomas, anyone? This would be my wet dream.

8. Houston Rockets

SHOULD TAKE: Patrick O'Bryant

WILL TAKE: Randy Foye

Conventional wisdom has the Rockets interested in J.J. "I Heart Poetry" Redick, but with the new stats guys in the front office, I don't see them making a move that dumb. The Rockets are an interesting franchise that could easily be set back by a bad draft or move closer to contention by a good one. Sure, the health of their franchise players will be the determining factor, but the Rockets need to realize, they're not in a position to add pieces here -- their roster is a disaster and needs to be completely blown-up. Houston should focus on contending in 2008, and casting off every other part of the roster that won't play on that team: Bob Sura, Juwan Howard, Dikembe Mutombo...need I go on?

I still don't believe Redick is an NBA starter, so they should pick someone who has a chance to be an NBA starter. Marcus Williams might appeal, but he's going to be a disaster in this league. Pick Foye or go with potential.

9. Golden State Warriors

SHOULD TAKE: O'Bryant

WILL TAKE: O'Bryant

The Warriors are perhaps the most befuddling team in the NBA. Set dunce Mike Montgomery aside -- this team should have won 40 games if drunken Mickey Mantle was their coach.

With a shitload of talent that includes star-to-be Andris Biedrins and surefire NBA players Ike Diogu and Monta Ellis, the Warriors need to move their expensive talent (Troy Murphy, Baron Davis and Mike Dunleavy) and rebuild quickly.

O'Bryant may not be the best fit, but he's so much more talented than the rest of the board it would be a crime not to take him here.

10. Seattle Supersonics

SHOULD TAKE: Ronnie Brewer

WILL TAKE: Brewer

I doubt the Sonics, still in need of a new stadium, will go for a big here. Johan Petro, Chris Wilcox and Robert Swift look like the nastiest low post trio in the Western Conference, and they really don't need a big who can't defend like Shelden Williams. Rodney Carney is a possibility -- they should look to get a big guard in the Antonio Daniels mode and Brewer is it. He'll be a nasty NBA player; he's too big, strong and fast to not make it in the NBA.

11. Orlando Magic

SHOULD TAKE: Saer Sene

WILL TAKE: J.J. Redick

Orlando is the luckiest friggin' team in the world. I was down there for a game in 2003 during the Tracy McGrady farewell tour when they were getting slaughtered by the Knicks and their roster looks like a disaster. In the meantime, they get lucky enough to get Dwight Howard. Then Joe Dumars wakes up on the wrong side of the bed and deals Darko for a pick. Yikes. Fran Vazquez staying overseas wasn't exactly the best moment for the Magic front office, but they've been lucky, not bright. Jameer Nelson is a stud and is the No. 1 case for my "Draft Point Guards late in the first round, not at No. 3" theory.

What they'll do with this pick is an open question. If they decide to keep it--and I doubt they will--Redick makes some sense. I'd probably try to trade down if I were them, and with Redick likely to be available here, they'll get their share of offers. If they don't trade out, they should gamble on a big like Saer Sene or a guy like Rodney Carney who can replace Keyon Dooling in their rotation.

12. OK City Hornets

SHOULD TAKE: Upside, people, upside.

WILL TAKE: Shelden Williams

You have to feel for the Hornets. They unexpectedly have an awesome season, miss the playoffs anyway, and now get saddled with this pick while Orlando picks ahead of them. The Magic don't have many needs, the Hornets have needs coming out their ears. They need bigs most of all, and good money has it that only projects and seniors will be available at this spot. They'll take the latter in Shelden Williams. I don't doubt that Shelden can play in the NBA, I do doubt that he can compete defensively with the spate of PFs in the Western Conference. With another pick later in the first round, the Hornets can fill another need there.

13. Philadelphia 76ers

SHOULD TAKE: Thabo Sefolosha

WILL TAKE: Rajon Rondo

Will he stay or will he go? I speak, of course, of Allen Iverson. The Sixers need to bite the bullet and trade their franchise player, who had a pretty nice season, but still is overpaid and overrated. I'm not an Iverson-hater -- personally, I find him an engaging and entertaining individual. His interview with Stephen A. Smith this year had its moments, too. He just isn't the player he's touted to be, more Jerry Stackhouse than MVP candidate. He'd be a nifty solution in Dallas for Jason Terry's pending free agency, and they do have the talent to offer the Sixers. The rest of the Sixers squad needs to be turned over outside of Andre Igoudala. Giving Dalembert a massive extension wasn't the worst of the spending the front office did, but acquiring Chris Webber never had a chance to work out. If Rondo drops to them here, they have to be happy, despite having more serious needs in the frontcourt.

14. Utah Jazz

WILL TAKE: Marcus Williams

SHOULD TAKE: Saer Sene

One of my favorite teams to watch last year, the Jazz had all the makings of a classic soap operas with the Jerry Sloan circus and the most unique player in basketball.

The Jazz have a promising future, but they played Keith MacLeod wayyyy too much last season. They need a backcourt player, preferably one who can (1) handle the point if necessary and (2) shoot the three. For this reason, the Jazz might end up preferring to trade down from this slot and grab their guard later on in the round. If a talent like Saer Sene drops here, they should take a chance and try to draft a guy like Quincy Douby later on. I think Marcus Williams will drop this far, and it won't hurt the Jazz to take him and then deal him, but that's hardly the optimal move. If they take Hilton Armstrong, they're officially lost.

15. OK City Hornets

WILL TAKE: Thabo Sefolosha

SHOULD TAKE: Sefolosha

The prototypical small forward, I think the Hornets will go for him despite Byron Scott's lack of skills in dealing with internationals. Kyle Lowry is also an option here.

16. Chicago Bulls

SHOULD TAKE: Kyle Lowry

WILL TAKE: No idea.

With most of their preferred options off the board, and the likelihood that they'll take a big with the No. 2 pick, I like Lowry as the best guard still on the board. He's the kind of gamer Scott Skiles likes, and other guard options haven't really looked good at the combine: Mardy Collins, Jordan Farmar, etc. Farmer may end up being the better NBA player, but Lowry has better athleticism and is the best defender.

17. Indiana Pacers

SHOULD TAKE: Alexander Johnson

WILL TAKE: Alexander Johnson

I can't see them taking Hilton Armstrong with this pick. Since I have watched more UConn games since 1998 than Jim Calhoun, I pretend to know more about UConn players than the general populace. With that said, I do have a tendency to underrate Huskies. I was never the biggest Ben Gordon fan, and I was probably wrong on that score. I like Denham Brown to have a far better NBA career than Hilton Armstrong, a guy with all the tools in the world but none of the guts. Armstrong is lanky, big and strong, but he's never been a great scorer and is a defensive sub at best. The Pacers could use a guy like that, but Johnson's the better choice.

18. Washington Wizards

SHOULD TAKE: Shannon Brown

WILL TAKE: Hilton Armstrong

I am not, nor have I ever been, an Eddie Jordan fan. I dislike the Wizards' offense even though I like the Suns' offense -- it's kind of like hating Tom Cruise while somewhat enjoying Brad Pitt. Sure, they're both phonies, but at least one of them isn't sloppy in the sack.

You know what I mean.

The Wizards are a strange team that's tough to upgrade, but with Jared Jeffries likely gone to free agency, Hilton Armstrong actually makes sense here. You'd prefer they take a guy like Shannon Brown instead of overspending in free agency for Antonio Daniels, but that organization will never compete in the East for plenty of other reasons.

19. Sacramento Kings

SHOULD TAKE: Sergio Rodriguez

WILL TAKE: Rodriguez

Making the change to Eric Musselman was a nice move. It's not that Rick Adelman wasn't a good coach; he was, but I subscribe to Larry Bird's philosophy that a team can only listen to one voice for so long. (This is the reason, incidentally, that Rick Carlisle is likely to be turfed midseason.)

Now he has to deal with this roster. They're going to lose Bonzi Wells to free agency off his Jerome James-like explosion in the playoffs, so they need a SG. Brown is the appealing domestic choice, but look for them to go overseas for this pick. Rodriguez makes plenty of sense, as would N.C. State power forward Cedric Simmons.

20. New York Knicks

SHOULD TAKE: Marcus Vinicius

WILL TAKE: Vinicius

I think Isiah's promise to Boone is for real, but don't be surprised if Vinicius is the pick and they snap up Boone later. Shawne Williams has a lot of talent, sure, but the Knicks already have Jalen Rose. The massive Vinicius has upside, which the Knicks need desperately, as their last draft (Frye, Lee, Robinson) was the All-WYSIWYG team.

Scouts Inc.'s take on Vinicius:

Vinicius has a huge upside. He came on the basketball scene three years ago at the first Reebok Eurocamp in Treviso, Italy. He is long, athletic and has NBA skills. His game is very similar to that of Dermarr Johnson of the Denver Nuggets. He can score in bunches, and with his length, he can get into the lane and get his shot without any problem. He has a very good jump shot. In addition, he is very difficult to stop in the open floor with his quickness and outstanding ball-handling skills.

Some NBA teams have questioned his strength and toughness. But Vinicius has made great strides with his body, putting on 30 pounds of muscle over the past year, and it has helped his ability to finish. He also has defensive shortcomings that he must improve on to play at the NBA level.

I still can't believe the Knicks made that Eddy Curry trade. They could have had Tyrus Thomas! It makes you want to cry.

21. Phoenix Suns

SHOULD TAKE: Best athlete on the board.

WILL TAKE: Olexsiy Pecherov

What's so beautiful about the Suns' offense is that if you can shoot, you can play. For that reason, I've been baffled over the past few years that they haven't prized athleticism and shooting ability over any other traits.

Sticking with the international scene while the rest of NBA backs off a little should help the Suns. I think D'Antoni will make a good choice here, whether it's Pecherov, Quincy Douby, or Shawne Williams.

22. New Jersey Nets

SHOULD TAKE: Lowry.

WILL TAKE: Kyle Lowry. If he's not there, Farmar.

After last year's pathetic selection of a guy who can't shoot or dribble in Antoine Wright, the Nets may have cost themselves by not picking Danny Granger. They're going to go right for need here and pick a backcourt player that will allow them to discard the horrific Jacque Vaughn. They're praying Kyle Lowry lasts until this pick. If he's gone, Farmar's fine. If he's gone, Ed Stefanski just starts crying.

23. New Jersey Nets

SHOULD TAKE: Jordan Farmar

WILL TAKE: Farmer. If they already took him, expect them to go overseas for a pick.

The Nets also badly need a frontcourt rotation player. I repeat: they cannot draft another guy who cannot make their rotation. I just don't think there are any other bigs worth drafting in the first. For that reason, I'd pick up Farmar as well. Better to take the two best "commodities" with this pick than reach for a guy who really belongs in the second round.

24. Memphis Grizzlies

SHOULD TAKE: Daniel Gibson

WILL TAKE: Leon Powe

They need a big. They also need an impact player. They could use a shooting guard as well. With this pick, they'll be lucky to even find a rotation player. Not good news for a team that needs an impact player to have a chance at even making the playoffs next year.

25. Cleveland Cavaliers

SHOULD TAKE: Quincy Douby, if available.

WILL TAKE: Douby or Guillermo Diaz.

Douby gets very lucky in this draft, as he can play in the NBA, and most of the other guys picked this late in the draft can't. The Cavs really need a point guard, so if one of the usual suspects drops to them here, they'll take him: Farmar, Lowry, Rodriguez.

26. L.A. Lakers

SHOULD TAKE: Diaz

WILL TAKE: Diaz

Diaz is a nice fit for the Lakers, who have serious problems of their own. They should shop Andrew Bynum aggressively. Though I don't think Bynum was a bad pick, this year's playoffs showed the Lakers actually can compete using the triangle if they upgrade their personnel. I think they should look to acquire a Corey Maggette type player with Bynum.

27. Phoenix Suns

SHOULD TAKE: Maurice Ager

WILL TAKE: Ager

I hope they give Rashad Anderson a look in camp. For now, Ager's all-around game will do. The Suns have some tough decisions, and parting ways with Leandro Barbosa tops this list. Barbosa's a stud player, but he plays a replaceable position. Ager should fit in nicely. Bye bye, Eddie House.

28. Dallas Mavericks

SHOULD TAKE: I'm not telling Mark Cuban what to do, he's too angry right now.

WILL TAKE: James White

White is a super-talented big guard who was injured in his last season at Cincinnati. I saw him play a few times and was super-impressed every time. He's a useful swingman in Dallas that only drops this far because of his health.

29. New York Knickerbockers

SHOULD TAKE: No clue this late.

WILL TAKE: Boone

Boone will eventually be a serviceable rotation player in the league, but he doesn't have the low-post skills to be a star -- not that he would have had a chance to show them in Jim Calhoun's stupid offense.

30. Portland Trailblazers

SHOULD TAKE: Joel Freeland

WILL TAKE: Freeland

I'm cribbing from Chad Ford's latest mock, but Freeland's a project with all kinds of potential, and he could even go higher than this. Don't expect him in the NBA until 2009.

WHO DID THE STEROIDS? A DE FACTO GUIDE

2006-06-16T17:57:00.000-07:00

Why do I keep writing about the steroids controversy? Simple -- God made it to entertain us. Or at least, that's what Dan O'Dowd told me when we shared that bowl of Fruit Loops.

-- Me, while writing this column.

During the era which liberals call McCarthyism and or "The Red Scare," Performance Analysis was but a shiny spermicle in the testes of a Polish immigrant. My grandfather Abe was a committed socialist himself, and as such he was hardly sympathetic to Joe McCarthy. In fact, he hated the bastard.

So if I didn't hate Bud Selig, how could I live with myself?

Answer: Get a grip -- my grandfather was poor, and I'm spoiled.

If I criticize Bud Selig, I have to criticize every rich white hypocrite who makes billions off of the labor of black athletes and then wastes the time of the United States Congress persecuting his charges.

This might be almost...racist.

Now, I know what you're saying.

"You went to Brown!" or, alternately, "Your dad is a periodontist!" Both rejoinders are besides the point, though I won't waste time disputing their veracity.

If you're not going ad-hominem, then my guess would be that your carefully considered response is, "Just because they're only going after the black people doesn't mean..."

Then you kinda stop yourself. You say, "Wait a second -- they are only going after black people." This is what Scientologists refer to as a Class-D breakthrough. (For those interested, a Class E breakthrough is an orgasm. See what you can learn from the internet?)

Barry Bonds did steroids, and anyone who suggests otherwise is a fool. So did Sammy Sosa, Mark McGwire, Brady Anderson, Ivan Rodriguez, Jose Canseco, Rafael Palmeiro, Mike Sweeney. After you hit the bong, you can name innummerably more who did the same. The Steroid Era may not be the industry-wide schlepping (technical term referring to the injection of steroids) that some fear-mongers want it to be, but yeah. Steroids got done. A lot.

Since I have never publicly offered a solution to the steroids problem -- this might have been because no one was dumb enough to ask me, I grant you -- I want you to know that what follows is a view borne of experience, not innocence.

The industry that provided me with this experience is one that doesn't get covered a lot by the mainstream media. When it does, the inaccuracy of the reporting tends to boggle the mind. The industry I am referring to is professional wrestling, and now that there is only one company with a salaried workforce, let's call it WWE.

Now in wrestling, every money-making scheme gets started when the promoter starts thinking to himself -- "X would draw a huge house." The 'X' in this equation is usually "Flair vs. Steamboat" or "Warrior vs. Hogan" or "Bob Sapp vs. anybody who isn't good enough to beat him and take away his aura."

I can't resist a sidebar discussing the beast Bob Sapp. Sapp is a former NFL wannabe who went over to Japan and made a small fortune drawing Japanese crowds to see him punk tiny opponents with his massive hands. Sapp's gimmick was that he would eat a banana after the match because the fans loved it. This is just to say: America isn't the only country guilty of exploiting black athletes.

But back to what draws crowds: sometimes it's T & A. God knows before Bud decided to look the other way, he probably considered that. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if it came down to Tiffani Amber Thiessen topless at every major league stadium or "look the other way." In either case, Bud was thinking like a wrestling promoter does -- if it draws the crowds, if it puts money in everybody's pocket, can it really be as bad as they say it is?

Yes, this was a different time in baseball. The memory of the strike was fresh in everybody's minds, though in my case I was mostly focusing on the innummerable autographs I was able to obtain from bored ballplayers with carpel tunnel syndrome and stagnant bank accounts. Thank you, Tom Glavine.

Something did have to give -- either baseball was going to become second fiddle to the Jordan-era NBA or it was going to bring back the audience it had lost by altering its game. And what better way to change the game than increasing the frequency of its signature play, the home run?

The major thing that Bud took from wrestling (subconsciously of course, Freud was the first true Performance Analyst) was that the quality of the performance was only noticed by the hardcore fan -- the rest were too busy coughing up big bills and watching home runs sail out of ballparks to notice.

The real lesson that wrestling provides in the case of steroids in baseball comes from the case of steroids in wrestling. Unlike his father (not the best guy either), Vince though the future of wrestling was in massively overmuscled guys, the only kinds of wrestlers he found believable. This whole fetish sprang from his own desire to become buff, one he indulged illegally through steroid use, probably to this day.

The wrestlers used steroids a lot more than baseball players, I think it's fair to say. Without a union to protect them, wrestlers bulked up or got fired, and stayed buff 365 days a year. Now so many of the steroid users are dead that it's most interesting to note the guys whose lives weren't users. (Ric Flair stands out.)

I'm not expecting this kind of death toll to hit baseball at all. The interesting question that this does posit though came to me once afternoon when I was listening to another one of my grandfather's endless tales about those salad days.

If baseball players did start dying from steroids -- or even simply being incapacitated in wheelchairs and nursing homes -- who would be to blame?

The men who put their lives in danger to save the game and provide for their families? Or the nasty profiteers who put the individual safety of the players aside for their own reasons?

"The employees usually get the short end of the stick," my grandfather told me.

THE SUPER-EXCLUSIVE RULE 4 COVERAGE YOU HAVE COME TO EXPECT

2006-06-05T13:39:00.000-07:00

The MLB Rule 4 draft isn't as fun as its football and basketball counterparts because amateur baseball stars have zero name recognition in this country. The fact that it is such a crapshoot does make it somewhat entertaining. A 20 year old basketball player is ready for the NBA, a 20 year old baseball player is ready to acquire herpes in a Motel 6 in Iowa.

To really understand what to expect from tomorrow's draft, you need only heed the information provided by BP's Kevin Goldstein and ex-Blue Jays adviser Keith Law in his debut for ESPN.

These are the two smartest guys evaluating the amateur talent, and they obviously have the best handle on how the draft WILL shake out.

We lack inside sources at the major league level, although we do have a key source at the Giants Double-A affiliate Connecticut Defenders. This key source was famous for taking too long in the shower every morning of my childhood, and playing X-Box Live until his fingers bleed.

With that said, we're still pros at evaluating performance, so here's how the draft SHOULD go.

1. Kansas City Royals

SHOULD TAKE: Luke Hochevar, SP.

WILL TAKE: Andrew Miller, SP.

Hochevar dropped to the 40th pick last year due to Boras. If you don't know this story, you probably will not be too interested in the rest of this column. Miller was the consensus best talent, and the North Carolina lefty is a solid prospect. But Hochevar can contribute as a big league ace now, and that's what the Royals should value above "projection."

2. Colorado Rockies

WILL TAKE: Evan Longoria, 2B.

SHOULD TAKE: A pitcher, IMO Max Scherzer or Cal righthander Brandon Morrow.

Longoria has been hailed as the best positional prospect in the draft, but even if he's that close to the show, his eventual upside is more Aaron Miles than anything else. He won't hit enough to be a star, and this is the No. 2 pick. Gamble on an arm if you're the Rockies.

3. Tampa Bay Devil Rays

SHOULD TAKE: Hochevar, if available.

WILL TAKE: Hochevar, if available.

With plenty of young positional players, the Rays will look to the solid collection of arms at the top of the draft. Either Brad Lincoln or Scherzer would make the most sense, but Hochevar will probably drop at least this far, and Andrew Friedman is bright enough to see that he'd compliment Kazmir nicely.

4. Pittsburgh Pirates

WILL TAKE: Brandon Morrow, SP

SHOULD TAKE: That will be fine, thanks.

The Pirates are one of the majors most dysfunctional organizations. Their current thinking is best recounted by Senor Goldstein:

Before last Friday, it looked like Stanford righthander Greg Reynolds had worked his way all the way up to this pick, but then he gave up seven runs on ten hits in six innings against UCLA in front of practically the entire Pittsburgh front office. Reynolds is probably the draft version of the plexiglass principle, where the player gets hot, starts shooting up the draft boards...and then teams realize that he's good, but he's not that good.

Hilarious. There's still a chance that they'll take Reynolds, but look for a safe pick from an organization that can't afford to blow another one.

5. Seattle Mariners

SHOULD TAKE: If not Hochevar, they should look for a hitter, and Billy Rowell is the best one in the draft.

WILL TAKE: A pitcher, the best one who drops to them. Brad Lincoln, a University of Houston pitcher, may be available here.

If you look back at drafts, hitters are so much safer to take than pitchers will early picks, it's kinda scary. Rowell, a SS in New Jersey whose eventual destination will be 3rd base, is in our opinion the safest pick in the draft. He's built like Troy Glaus. This guy can hit, and should go earlier than some of the experts believe.

6. Detroit Tigers

SHOULD TAKE: Clayton Kershaw, SP.

WILL TAKE: Kershaw.

According to Baseball America and myriad other sources, the Tigers are high on P Clayton Kershaw, a lefty who profiles like Billy Wagner. Sounds good, and the Tigers' track record of developing pitching has led them to a decent season so far this year. (ed note: Kershaw is not in the least bit short. Thanks to a source for that information.)

7. Los Angeles Dodgers

SHOULD TAKE: With the amount of awesome prospects LA has, they can afford to select upside and would prefer a pitcher.

WILL TAKE: The best arm on the board.

That arm may be Tim Lincecum, the University of Washington righthander with the sickest arm action I have ever seen. You just have to feel there's no way this guy makes it through the injury nexus, but the Dodgers can afford to risk it. Caveat: I don't know who Lincecum's agent is, and after the Hochevar debacle, the Dodgers will probably be cautious.

8. Cincinnati Reds

SHOULD TAKE: A college arm not that far away from contributing.

WILL TAKE: Rowell, if he drops this far. Otherwise, the choice will be made for them.

The Reds' scouting director is Chris Buckley, and here is what Kevin Goldstein had to say about him:

Buckley learned under Wilken, spending 17 years in the Toronto organization before joining the Reds this year. He was the assistant scouting director in Toronto from 1999-2000, assumed scouting director responsibilities in 2001 when Wilken moved up, and then joined Wilken as an assistant GM in 2004. In the three drafts he conducted, all three of the first-round picks reached the majors, and two of three second-rounders have.

In short, expect the Reds to make the right call.

9. Baltimore Orioles

SHOULD TAKE: They love Rowell, and so do I.

WILL TAKE: Someone with a Greek last name, as per Peter Angelos' directive.

10. San Francisco Giants

SHOULD TAKE: One of the multiple college arms out there, regardless of signability concerns.

WILL TAKE: Joba Chamberlain, RHP, University of Nebraska.

According to my source, the Giants hate overspending in the draft and wish they didn't have to pay a pitcher that probably won't make it to the majors with them that kind of insane bonus. With that said, the Giants will suck it up and take another arm to add to the only strength of their farm system.

Keith Law has the details on the pitcher most likely to inspire Star Wards jokes:

Joba (pronounced Jaw-buh) Chamberlain came into the year without much fanfare, as he spent 2004 pitching for Division II Nebraska-Kearney, then after a solid spring with Nebraska in 2005, he chose to pitch in the little-known, unsanctioned M.I.N.K. League over the summer. Chamberlain then came out throwing bullets in the early going, pitching consistently in the 91-94 range and touching 98, along with two breaking balls and the beginnings of a changeup. Despite missing two starts in mid-March due to what was called "biceps tendinitis," Chamberlain made starts in each of the season's last 10 weekends. Still, one executive told me that his club had high medical flags on Chamberlain, both due to the tendinitis and due to another, more serious arm problem.

Bryan Smith has the Giants taking Wake Forest 2B Matt Antonelli, but I simply don't see that happening. They'll stick with a pitcher.

As for the Yankees, they're lost. As for the Red Sox, John Sickels and his group of intelligent website commentators came up with this shot-in-the-dark:

27. Colton Willems, RHP, Florida HS
28. Stephen King, SS, Florida HS
40. Jeffrey Locke, LHP, New Hampshire HS
44. Dellin Betances, RHP, New York HS
71. Dustin Dickerson, 3B, Texas HS
83. Caleb Clay, RHP, Alabama HS
103. Cole Gillespie, OF, Oregon State University
133. Brian Jeroloman, C, University of Florida
163. Josh Morris, 1B, University of Georgia

COMMENT: Heavy into the high schoolers early. Willems, Locke, Betances, and Clay are all potentially excellent pitchers but will need time to develop. I doubt that Betances will last that long in real life; it would certainly piss off the Yankees and/or Mets to see him go to the Red Sox! Having "Stephen King" on the Red Sox draft list should make the horror author happy since he is a big Boston fan. I like Gillespie and Morris as college picks, but am not certain about Jeroloman. Overall, an aggressively risky class but the upside is quite high.

Seeing young SS Stephen King on there reminds me of the book he co-wrote about the 2004 World Series, which remains one of the most retarded sports memoirs of all time.

Lastly, make sure you support Neil Everett, who still is having no fun in Bristol after slamming Chris Berman (justly so) on air.

AN INQUIRY INTO THE HEARTENING FUTURE OF THIS NEW BASEBALL SEASON

2006-06-04T17:45:00.000-07:00

I have a chef who makes sure that I'm getting the right amounts of carbs, proteins and fats throughout the day to keep me at my max performance level.

-- Barry Bonds

Why you don't say, Barry? Me, too.

I like to do personal business for myself on the Internet. My finances, my investments... all the research that I do is on the Internet.

-- Barry Bonds

Barry, no shit, us too dude.

We love Barry. And we loves us some baseball.

There's always so many things to be thankful for when you watch the game. One of the top "how do you do"s this weekend was Larry Bowa chastising Corey Patterson for stealing in an 11-4 game. Apparently it did not dawn on Bowa that (1) the O's are well aware they suck and (2) The Yanks have been mercilessly coming back on every average team they face all year. 11-4 is hardly safe, and if not for the inadequancies of their pitching, the offense might have kept them in that game.

There's no excuse for arrogance, which the Yanks love to flaunt. Their players are always acting in service of the Yankees. Aaron Small, beloved for a 10-0 fluke season, gets pounded. "This is not helping the Yankees," whines Michael Kay. And we're going to hear talk about injuries all season.

The Red Sox plan for injury, with many potential excellent replacements at every position. The Yanks rush Sheffield back on the diamond and instead of DH-ing him, let me him play right. Then act shocked when he's out for the season. At least we won't have to hear Cashman hew and haw about Sheff's contract extension, which clearly is no more.

It's hard to say which of the two magnificently horrible deals the Yankees struck with a 32 year old and and a 31 year old is the worse. Matsui's a lock for .267/.334/.402 when he comes back, and not overpaying for replacement level talent is the first lesson of team-building. Damon is one short season away from being seriously below-average defensively. He looks roughly like this little critter. His offense is power-light and singles-heavy -- in other words, he's about as valuable as a 21 Melky Cabrera and vastly overpaid to be so.

Will the Yankees make a move? I personally don't think it's that stupid to dump Philip Hughes under the philosophy of "TINSTAAPP" for Carlos Lee or Soriano. And because that dumb deal is out there, and George Steinbrenner is the dude he is, the Yanks will make a move.

Meanwhile, injuries devastate clubs with more creative ways of playing around bad luck. The Cardinals will shift Jim Edmonds to first base, because he's not healthy enough to roam the outfield. I still am pissed he's on two of my fantasy teams.

Pujols' injury devastates my most serious opponents in two other fantasy leagues, so I should have some pocket cash to burn on a Bonds jersey.

IN WHICH WE FORETELL FROM TEENSY SAMPLE SIZES THE MORBID FATE OF THIS NEW STICKBALL SEASON

2006-04-20T10:46:00.000-07:00

You can't predict this game.

- John Sterling

Despite Joe Sheehan's excellent discourse on why it's dumb and just plain impolite to predict an entire season from the first 20 games, 'dumb and just plain impolite' is what they are planning to put on our gravestone.

You don't have to survey the blog world to read the tea-leaves. (Note: we will use as many mixed metaphors as we wish for the duration of this piece, after which we will never mix metaphors again).

First off, it's pretty clear that for some teams, the season is over right now. That's pretty depressing, unless you are a Royals fan, in which case all it means is you now have company in the gloom room.

Teams that have no prayer include:

The Royals. Just sticking around so Reggie Sanders can entertain another generation of young children. He also does birthday parties on off-days, I'm told.

The Rangers. Sure the offense could rebound, but then it'll just make for a nasty road show that will likely end Keith Foulke's season AGAIN this year. You need pitching to win, and the Rangers don't have any, reminding me of

The Pirates. It's almost worse to be a Pirate fan, as the meet and greet billboard player of the moment, Sean Casey, won't likely play again.

The Marlins. When you sit down to watch this group of Floridian ragamuffins, you think yourself, "Why did the critics count the Marlins out? Sure, they won't go to the postseason, but you can't completely count this team out." Their lineup isn't actually that bad, and the Josh Beckett deal is looking like a win-win. The problem is, they don't have anybody to pitch.

The Nationals: They're done, but don't despair Nats fans, as this carwrecked disaster of a season will be enhanced by catastrophic breakdowns between different parts of management, Frank Robinson strangling one of his players and then going after Barry, and a new owner who may be shouting "Depo!!!!!" very soon.

The Dodgers. I didn't like what Ned Colletti assembled, although at least he didn't make any major mistakes and brought some star power to the ballpark. The problem is, this team actually had a chance to win their weak division if they retooled right, and just preventing a setback isn't doing your job. If the Dodgers were to win this division now, it would be a major, major upset. Nate Silver's pick of the D-Backs to take the Wild Card is still looking a bit daft, but they have a damn good shot at taking the division.

The Yankees. Their pitching saved them last year, with Aaron Small's fun little .276 BABIP and Shawn Chacon drinking the Torre Kool-Aid. Someone should lauch an investigation. This year, with Randy Johnson's weepy postgame in that horrid sweater not a good sign, the Yanks will be lucky to be in competition for the Wild Card. They can try to grind it, but one major injury and they're doomed. Doomed we tell you!

Meanwhile, the obvious teams are looking like contenders. Forget about the A's, because they always start slow and are the least likeliest team to be hurt by (1) injury and (2) bad front office management. The White Sox and Indians both look like the teams they were last year.

But the main focus should rightly be on our Boston Red Sox. With the best record in baseball, the Sox have played beautifully in close games. But to me the major story of the season is Curt Schilling. Sure the guy exercises questionable judgment naming his son Gehrig, but who cares? He looks like friggin' Walter Johnson out there. The Sox are going to win this division, and probably rather easily. Mark Loretta with a walk-off? They haven't even played to half of their potential and it's like something out of Ben Cherington's wet dream.

Viva La Red Ones!

OPENING NIGHT IS UPON US

2006-04-02T14:22:00.000-07:00

While I didn't get to my goal of writing up an off-season report for all MLB teams, I tried my best. And since all this wonderful content is free for my discerning readers, you should be thankful I generated as much text as I did.

Now the season is upon us. There's not much else left to say. We've picked our fantasy sleepers. We're praying Bonds' knee gets him to 715. We purchased our MLB.tv package. We have watched archived preseason games in anticipation. I have tickets to one Yankees game. No, you can't come with me.

With the shadow of George "Stool Pigeon" Mitchell's steroid investigation is upon us, we still won't have trouble appreciating Rickie Weeks' bat waggle, Ryan Howard's HR stare, or Josh Beckett's PMS. We are certain to have a Randy Johnson temper tantrum, Giambino suspicions, and Willie Randolph on the hot seat here in New York. Then there are the all time greats, the Pujols and the Joneses, the Ortizes and Shawn Greens. We'll have the likely greatest player in history, Alex Rodriguez, to make all the controversy seem moot when he becomes the one to smash any and all career home run records at some point in the next ten years.

Yes, let the season begin. And God, please let me win all my fantasy leagues and pocket $600. Amen.

WE BREAK DOWN THE TOP TEN AUTHORS IN HISTORY LIKELY TO BREAK OUT THIS SEASON

2006-03-29T21:31:00.000-08:00

This is my list of top writers period. If this kind of content isn't your thing, we have plenty of Off-Season Reports floating around this site -- why don't you make like an ostrich and put your head in the sand?

10. John Ashbery

Having done no serious prose work (I'm counting his collaboration with
James Schuyler something well short of serious), Ashbery is the stand-in on this list for the entire influence of visual expression on ways of speech. He is still an art critic and the only living member of this list. For that reason, he is short of the finest artist working today (That is Thomas Pynchon) but his body of work cannot be quarrelled with.

9. Vladimir Nabokov

Nabokov suffered from synaethesia, which caused him to associate colors and sounds. He never enjoyed music for this reason. Nabokov's Lolita is the most modern book there is, and he started a huge other thread of thinking with Pale Fire. He is at his best when he is most controlling. Nabokov still may be revivified by another generation.

8. Charles Olson

Olson saw the future in a way. He is best identified as our modern seer. His work is so movingly complex that it rewards a variety of understandings. The things he did in poetry are unmatched in his lifetime.

7. Anton Chekhov

Chekhov invented the contemporary short story. My favorite work of his is his classic, "My Life," but in a way some of his work has a strange naivete. Though he invented the modern short story, his best work is perhaps his most unknown -- a series of experimental sketches that truly rewards the complexity of his thought. Even in the modern story he invented we see him wanting to struggle out of that...mode of living. It's influence that pushes him above Olson. Olson could
outwrite the guy while taking a dump.

6. James Joyce

Joyce kinda wrote himself into a corner with "Ulysses," but it was a fun corner. "Finnegan's Wake" is the book understood by the least amount of people. It can be rewarding at times. His work in the short story form is what elevates him to this ascendant status. He's also the smartest of the field. Proust wrote of Joyce (the only time the two ever met) "I was concerned with duchesses, he was concerned with
their chambermaids." You just get the feeling Joyce is gonna be around
for awhile. Ulysses can be very readable.

5. W.H. Auden

Since Auden was the main influence on an entire generation of poets,
he often fades into the background as father figure, giving exalted
status to his contemporary Wallace Stevens. Auden was the greater poet. His knowledge of the poetic is itself sublime. I do not know if no there can be another great poet. It seems like not enough people are writing poetry, let alone reading it, to say there can be another
one.

4. William Shakespeare

I was gonna punk Shakespeare and be like dude, "You're 8th! NEXT!" but me doth protest too much. Shakespeare's sonnets are masterful, humorous things, more intriguing than all of Pope and Pound. I love Donne and Keats and they just miss this list. The guy's plays are just tremendous. JUST TREMENDOUS.

3. Proust

Proust allows us to go to 4/10 for homosexual to heterosexual. His "In Search of Lost Time" is dense, unwieldy, original. Original is the key term. I'm not sure anything on the level of Proust will ever be done
again. Lives are so multi-faceted that they can't linger the way Marcel's mind would linger on something.

2. Samuel Beckett

Beckett is a functional genius. Harold Pinter, himself a Nobel Laureate, said that when Beckett sends him his work, all he says is, "Yes." If you read anything he's written, it's just hard to say that there's anything better in human language.

1. Gertrude Stein

The greatest writer ever basically took apart language, held it up to view. A massively interesting theorist who expressed her ideas in art. Invented most of the techniques that post-modern poets and writers use to their massive advantage. Her work itself is masterful, lucid, and very sad. She fuses the emotional with everything. A cold woman who could feel others as if they were her very self. Also gets extra credit for mentoring other members of the top 20. Never knew the recognition she deserved; not uncommon for the many insanely smart
members of her generation.

Soon: Why Gideon's Fantasy Team Doesn't Have a Prayer Against Mine

HERE WE GO A-DRAFTING

2006-03-26T09:42:00.000-08:00

Here comes another fantasy draft evaluation. We here at PA are new to fantasy baseball despite our love for all facets of the game and I would love to hear what our readers feel about this draft. Another thing I'd like some feedback on is war room preparation. How do our readers set themselves up for the draft? I lay out PECOTA projections by position around me and enrolled the help of a lovely and on-task assistant who I shall now take the time to thank profusely. She held a master list generated by the Player Forecast Manager over at Baseball Prospectus to keep track of who was being taken. How did everyone else use their assistants?

THE DRAFT

I had the last pick in a 12 team league giving me two picks in a row and 22 picks off until the end.

The categories are: R, HR, RBI, SB, AVG, W, ERA, SV, K, WHIP

I was a little surprised to see Manny taken 3rd overall, but not as surprised as when my picks arrived.

1. (12 and 13) David Wright and Carl Crawford

Wright fell into my lap and was an easy pick, he provides everything. Ditto for Crawford. I had a lot of choices, including every pitcher other than Santana and a bunch of outfield/1B boppers. It was between Oswalt, Pedro, RJ, Beltran and Crawford here, but Crawford helps out in every category with the possibility for 50 SB or a .330 AVG. Not an easy choice, but I can't say I regret my decision.

2. (36 and 37) Ben Sheets and Adam Dunn

Seven SP were picked in the 2nd and 3rd rounds and I had to jump at the chance to get Sheets, who PECOTA loves. Had Jose Reyes made it this far, I would have picked him. He went at 34 and I went for Dunn. I could have taken the more polished Berkman or the near-perfect Ryan Howard, but Dunn's upside is 50+ HR and he offered some flexibility if my outfield ended up weak.

3. (60 and 61) Joe Mauer and Joe Nathan

Victor Martinez had gone earlier in the round and I probably felt some pressure to snap up Mauer. Nathan was the last premier closer (other than Gagne) left and I was thrilled that I didn't have to deal with F-Rod or Lidge. BJ Ryan almost made it to me, but I can't complain about Nathan and his clean bill of health. Props to my cousin for getting Ryan Howard with the 63rd pick, I was tempted, but I needed to fill these two spots seeing as I still didn't have a SS or a 2B yet.

4. (84 and 85) Coco Crisp and Brad Wilkerson

I was set to take Brett Myers and Marcus Giles here, but they were taken at 81 and 83. Scrambling a bit, I picked up two outfielders who a lot of people have pegged for big years. Two more guys who can contribute in every category. Almost immediately afterward, I was relieved that Myers and Giles were out of my reach. The guy that drafted Jose Reyes was interested in Crisp, a trade I will have to pursue.

5. (108 and 109) Javier Vazquez and JD Drew

If these two guys reach their potential, I will be in excellent shape. I expect good things from Vazquez this year and I was confident enough that I could find a good back up SP later on to take a gamble. He probably could have survived to my next pick, but my assistant was adamant. JD Drew gives me a ton of upside balanced with an excellent chance of injury. However, between Dunn, Wilkerson and remaining pool of OF and 1B, I felt this was a risk I could take.

6. (132 and 133) Mike Gonzalez and Rickie Weeks

I couldn't hold back on my sleeper picks any longer and sprang for both at once. Gonzalez's budding talent should give him enough saves despite playing in PIT. He's got two solid years under his belt and a killer K rate. Weeks is more of a known commodity, but was definitely the best 2B around, PECOTA sees him at 20hr/20sb.

7. (156 and 157) Carlos Guillen and Jeremy Bonderman

A major run on shortstops left me with few options to fill my last empty starting spot. That said, Guillen offers some decent numbers, assuming his injury doesn't slow him down permanently. He's hit .318 and .320 the last two seasons and will finally be part of a decent team. I like this pick more and more and we haven't even gotten to Bonderman. With a number of mediocre SP still around, I considered this a major coup. Bonderman will put it together someday and if that happens at any point in 2006, he can take Vazquez's place right away.

8. (180 and 181) Curtis Granderson and Josh Willingham

Granderson offers 20/20 potential and has been a popular pick among fantasy experts this year. Willingham has some pop and nice upside for a backup catcher who may not end up catching too many games for Florida.

9. (204 and 205) Scot Shields and Placido Polanco

With all the other established closers gone, I went for the best reliever around. Again, being new to fantasy, I'm not sure if this was a smart pick or not. My reasoning was that if KRod goes down, I will suddenly have a strong closer backing up the two I have already. Polanco gives me some depth if Weeks struggles and hopefully he will play some games at 3B so he can back up Wright over there.

10. (228 and 229) Jeff Weaver and David DeJesus

As a Yankee fan, I will always despise Weaver for his role in the 2003 WS and the 2004 ALCS (by being traded for Kevin Brown). Yes, I am fully aware than Joe Torre chose to use Weaver in extra innings of a WS game before he had exhausted all his other options, including throwing Don Zimmer or me out there and yes, I know that big Stein had been coveting Brown since 1997, but I am incapable of assigning blame to these pillars of the community and that just leaves Weaver. Anyway, he is back on track and I can sub him in when he is facing a team without any leftys. DeJesus is another fantasy sleeper and this far down the line, I'm happy to join the crowd.

11. (252) Jason Michaels

With the last pick in the draft, I went with Michaels who will be starting in Cleveland. I had four starting pitchers already and he was the best available hitter since Wily Mo was taken at 248.

I feel I have a good combination of well-rounded players and guys with big upsides. What do you think?

PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES OFF-SEASON REPORT

2006-03-24T11:20:00.000-08:00

I wanted to tackle the Phillies next, because a lot of experts are picking them to contend this year. When I heard that, I was like, "Why?" I mean, they were in it to the end last year, but with an improved Mets squad and increased competition for the wild-card made me think they are blocked.

C

If Mike Lieberthal stays in the line-up and the Marlins have to play Josh Willingham's bat in left field, then Lieberthal could be the second-best catcher in the division behind Brian Schneider. If I was Pat Gillick (and thank god I'm not) I would have targeted Mike Piazza. Sal Fasano as a backup is a terrible idea when he actually might be forced to play meaningful games.

1B

I just took Ryan Howard in a fantasy draft today. If I made a list of players who can crank 50 bombs this season, it would go a little something like this:

5. Manny
4. Pujols
3. Ryan Howard
2. Bonds if allowed to resteroid up and if NL pitchers suddenly grew afraid of Ball 4
1. Andruw Jones (he did it)

Howard is the only exclusively left-handed hitter besides Bonds. That ballpark is a travesty and he will abuse it right into my fantasy league victory.

2B

Chase Utley. The grandfather of all current 2B prospects like Ian Kinsler, Josh Barfield, and Rickie Weeks, Utley has the best power of all of them, posting a .301 EqA.

SS

It's a delight to watch Jimmy Rollins play baseball, because he looks like a member of Method Man's posse.

LF

The perpetually overrated Burrell had a year finally deserving of the hype, walking 99 times. He's a good corner-outfielder with the bat, but not with the glove. He's a DH waiting to happen, and after that, the end may be quick. He's a good sleeper -- with the amount of quality outfielders that are out there (each team needs three!) it makes it borderline insane to take a Carl Crawford with a top pick, when pitchers and raking up-the-middle players provide so much more value.

3B

With David Bell unlikely to go to bat 300 times, the Phils have nothing more than the usual non-players at their disposal. You would have liked them to get a real player at the position -- dealing Bobby Abreu while he's still valuable for such a player would have seemed a prudent idea. While acquiring Glaus was a bigger risk, it provided a better reward, and the Blue Jays have a chance at the post-season. That's the kind of sideways move that adds wins.

CF

Aaron Rowand was a decent bounty for an immobile Jim Thome and a plenty of cash. Rightly tired of Jason Michaels' antics and subpar power, in Rowand was probably the best defensive center fielder in baseball last year -- shit, I think the Yankees try to capture him in a net during one particularly awesome game for Rowand in the field. With a lineup capable of a lot of power, Rowand's offensive liabilities don't stand out. A player that pushes a team towards a championship -- last year proved it.

RF

It's hard to overstate what 100 walks a year does for an offense. It is nearly impossible to be a bad hitter when you are walking that much. The worst hitter to ever walk 100 times would still be a good hitter. The concern here is that Abreu's power may be on the decline. His Gold Glove is as much of a joke as his reputation for being "un-clutch" is.

ROTATION and BULLPEN

Brett Myers: Leveraged a high K rate into a good year. Pitching in that ballpark, he's a fantasy no-no.

Jon Lieber: His same old self, Lieber will be league average. League average, meet...

Robinson Tejada: A good sleeper in deep leagues, Tejada has a chance to master his control and really dominate opposing hitters. He'd be a good bet if it wasn't for Citizens Bank Ballpark. That's the name of their ballpark, right?

Tom Gordon: A perpetual injury risk who barely had enough to finish the season in New York, got rich. Good for Gordon, but not for the Phils, who are one strain away from Geoff Geary as their permanent set-up man.

Pat Gillick is not the man to remedy this sagging situation. I don't extend the Phils to contend much longer, even if they can mount a run this season. How can you not like the Mets over this bunch of non-winners. I mean, Burrell hasn't even won a friggin' little league trophy. The Phillies are losers, and always will be! Forgive me if I don't think Gavin Floyd and Cole Hamels are going to be enough to right this ship 'o' pitching.

HOW'S MY DRAFTING?

2006-03-19T13:38:00.000-08:00

In honor of Erik and Will, I decided to imitate their columns.

At 1:30 I found out I was the No. 3 pick, which kinda sucks, as there were only two no-brainer picks (A-Rod and Pujols) and this is a keeper league, where both are super valuable. Nevertheless, I think I did OK for myself, but you be the judge.

Thanks to Rob G over at TCR for letting me join his league. They have a great site over there, and the commenters are among the best around.

The league's categories are AB,R,H,2B,3B,HR,RBI,SB,CS,BB,HBP,K,GIDP,A,E.

1. (3) D. Wright

Like I said, I basically had a half-hour to make this call, but in the end, I had a hard time making a good argument for anyone else except Miguel Cabrera, and if he cracks 90 RBI it'll be a miracle. Wright is a definite keeper, he's been very durable thus far, and he can also add SB. The only caveat I have with this pick is that there are a lot of quality 3B in a mixed-league draft.

2. (32) D. Jeter

With Jeter available, I didn't have to think twice. The guy doesn't miss games; and his power seems to be developing well as he ages. Plus, this way I can root for him since I live in the East Village.

3. (37) J. Mauer

I'm not as high on Mauer as a lot of other people, mostly because I question how well he'll be able to stay away from injury. But I didn't want a mediocre catcher, I wanted a slugger, and Mauer is another guy with tons of upside. It was maybe a little high to take him, but I wasn't enthused with my other options. I seriously considered Rich Harden, but whatever.

4. (66) M. Rivera

With the Yankees juggernaut likely to win 100 games, I couldn't say no to Rivera after a lengthy absence from picking.

5. (71) B. Bonds

Maybe this was a little high to take Bonds, considering that most people in the league didn't seem too enthused by him, but as you probably know from my last post, I think Barry is funny, and this gives me a reason to watch him.

6. (100) B. Giles

With Giles' centerfield eligibility, it's hard to regret this pick. BP's Player Forecast Manager had Giles in the mid 20s for my league, and I got him at #100. I had been praying Hideki Matsui would drop here, because I prefer his power, but Giles is a great pick here regardless.

7. (105) P. Fielder

Scared other folks would take him first, I jumped on Fielder as someone I'll probably want to retain for a few seasons. I also considered taking Jim Edmonds, but Fielder's youth won out.

8. (134) T. Hudson

I waited until here to take my first pitcher, and I have always liked Hudson. Maybe my best pick...

9. (139) A. Burnett

...and maybe my worst. Though his shoulder MRI came up negative, Burnett is a perpetual injury risk who may not be all that great to begin with. I could have had Jeff Weaver, who has been Mr. Durable, far later on in this draft. In hindsight, I probably would have taken John Lackey, but I thought he would last to my next pick. He didn't.

10. (168) J. Giambi

Considering I already had a 1st baseman, I considered passing on Giambi, but ultimately, he was by far the best player still on the board at this point. Frankly, I don't know how he fell this far. He'll probably be my DH all year.

11. (173) J. Contreras

Another misfire for me, as I could have grabbed an innings-eater later and stocked up on saves here. Still, I'm more optimistic on Contreras then most.

12. (202) O. Hudson

I needed a second baseman, assists count in our league, and no other 2nd basemen on the board had the upside of Hudson. I think he's capable of a breakout, and he won't suffer from not getting at-bats.

13. (207) S. Shields

Because I'm not sure how important relief pitching is, being a fantasy newbie, I wasn't sure if this was a good pick or not. Considering how fragile K-Rod is, I like this pick even if Shields doesn't end up closing.

14. (236) C. Granderson

I didn't really need another CF, but Granderson is going to be the Tiger's starter, and I loved his potential. Amazingly, I got an even better CF later, as you'll see.

15. (241) B. McCarthy

I was really hoping to snag McCarthy, and I didn't want to take the chance of someone else taking him in the next 29 picks. McCarthy's ability is unquestionable -- next to King Felix, he's the best young pitcher in baseball. Felix went 28th overall, which is not even a reach in my opinion. My gamble here is that Kenny Williams will trade a starter to fit McCarthy into the rotation. In the 15th round, I was willing to roll the dice.

16. (270) M. Alou

I don't know what to think about this pick -- I thought I needed an extra OF, considering Bonds' situation, but I probably should have taken Joey Gathright, even though I would have had further chances at him.

17. (275) E. Loaiza

I needed a pitcher, so I asked Billy Beane. He said, here ya go.

18. (304) T. Wakefield

I was hoping to snap up Mike Sweeney, but Wakefield's durability and upside made him as good a bet. I know what you're saying: "Upside?" I'm serious: Wakefield had a great season last year, and he only got better as he went along, culminating in a tremendous performance against Randy Johnson at Yankee Stadium. Again, I still needed starting pitching considering I had AJ Burnett and Brandon McCarthy.

19. (309) D. DeJesús

I wouldn't have let him even fall this far if I had noticed he was still on the board. Fortunately, I got a fourth chance to grab DeJesus. His PECOTA predicts .286/.356, while the system has Johnny Damon at .293/.365. Damon went in the middle of the sixth round.

20. (338) M. Batista

I still needed a reliever, and though I couldn't remember if the Snakes intend on bringing Batista into the rotation or making him their closer, he'll get plenty of opportunities. Plus, the clock was ticking. (Ed. He's in their starting rotation, dumbass.)

21. (343) M. Kotsay

A bum back made others wary of him, but if he's healthy, he adds to my unreal outfield depth or lets another player become a trade chip.

22. (372) J. Valentín

I forgot to take a backup catcher, and Javier Valentin cranked 14 homers last year, so he got the nod.

23. (377) R. Langerhans

At this point, I was just taking guys who weren't horrible, and Langerhans definitely has skills.

24. (406) K. Youkilis

Can't believe I got Kevin this late, and his first-base eligibility gives me some options.

25. (411) A. Everett

I needed another infielder. I still need one, because Everett's only eligible at short. This is just a hail-mary if Jeter comes down with gonorrhea or something.

Overall, I was pretty happy with the team I assembled. What do you think?

STEROIDS: WHO NEEDS THEM? ANSWER: ALMOST EVERYONE

2006-03-18T21:28:00.000-08:00

Please be sure to check out Gideon's Tampa Bay D-Rays off-season report and team preview. The 24 reference was particularly impressive, so much so that I awarded Mr. Friedman extra points in my NCAA tourney pool.

As I write this, we're waiting on the rain delay in the Japan v. Korea semifinal. I will write my long column on the WBC very soon; suffice it to say I want Buck Martinez to serve as my butler for this miserable performance. Managing is far more important in this setting than in the course of the regular season or even the MLB playoffs, and Martinez sucked. But like I said, we'll get my full thoughts on the WBC very soon, and since I have been a WBC supporter before the idea for the tourney even existed so I'll be nice.

But this evening, my subject is steroids. To really talk about this subject, I have to establish my credibility. Except for Peter Gammons, who is the only baseball reporter not to play dumb on a regular basis, every major media outlet has been more hypocritical on the issue of steroids than Barry Bonds is for using them and then denying he did.

Like I said, I wish to establish my credibility on this issue. I remember tuning in for the legendary game in Busch Stadium where Mark McGwire passed Roger Maris to claim the home-run record. It only took one second to look at McGwire to know the guy was dipping his mozzarella sticks in chocolate sauce.

Yes, that is the euphemism I use for steroids.

I can already tell that my considerable fanbase (all of eight people) is saying, "Ohhhh, I get it. He's sticking it to the mainstream media for being hypocritical. Really, he hates steroids more than all of us."

Me 1, Fanbase...ZERO.

Now I realize that most people came to the steroid problem in baseball not knowing too much about the subject of performance-enhancing drugs. Old people were all like, "Are they Wheaties?" and baby boomers were like, "Can I invest in them?"

I happen to be a wrestling fan. Now I don't watch wrestling anymore, because any of the guys I cared about all died from drug overdoses in subpar working conditions, but when I did, it was pretty obvious that everyone was on steroids.

It's stupid for wrestlers to take steroids, but they had very good reasons to do so. If they didn't take steroids, they didn't look the way their boss (Vince McMahon, Ted Turner, take your pick) wanted them to. So to feed their families, they bulked up to look good on TV.

The difference in wrestling is, nobody pretends that wrestlers aren't all on steroids, except for possibly the government. But no one else is that fucking dumb.

Similar situation when I saw McGwire lift his little boy over his head. To really enjoy the moment, I either had to suspend disbelief -- which was freakin' impossible, the guy looked like Hulk Hogan -- or come to grips with the fact that doing steroids didn't hurt anybody but other players, and those other players weren't exactly in a hurry to crack down on this epidemic.

So I got over it. Athletes take steroids, big deal.

Flash to EIGHT YEARS LATER, when every reporter in the country is still whining about Bonds taking steroids, and Bud Selig is launching an "investigation." What a load of horseshit!

I mean, look at pictures of Bonds. Any idiot knew the dude was on steroids. He was like twice as big as himself in 1998. This does not happen by accident, retards.

Of course Sammy Sosa took steroids. So did Ivan Rodriguez, Palmeiro. The whole Texas Rangers were doing it. Jeremy Giambi taught his brother. And so on. Brady Anderson hit 50 homers. I mean, were people really rationalizing this stuff? We're still giving ex-users the Comeback Player of the Year Award!

I mean, this was seriously entering the realm of self-parody!

It would have been one thing if everybody agreed that steroids were bad from the get-go, and we didn't want them in sports. Then I would have been like, OK, get them out of sports. But when they singlehandedly revitalize the marketplace for baseball, I think they served their purpose.

If steroids were animate instead of just being drugs, they'd be like the girl you used to make the chick you REALLY want jealous. Then after you got the new chick, you were, "Bitch, I'm sticking an asterisk next to your name and don't ever call me again."

It's not cool to treat women this way. Fortunately, steroids are unlikely to steal your car or send you e-mail scams where you confess your secret crushes. Only women do those things. Well, women and robots.

My point is, steroids, I can't get mad atcha. You look good in a uniform, and you rake like a motherfucker.

If I was Barry Bonds, and some white dude was parading his baby son around on his massive pythons after shattering a decades-old record, I sure as HELL would have said to myself, "You know what, maybe I better start smoking this shit too."

Inevitably, the investigation of Bonds will result into nothing. And there is absolutely ZERO way this is keeping Bonds out of the Hall of Fame. Steroids or not, he'll be enshrined in Cooperstown, and rightly so.

Barry Bonds doesn't need my sympathy, but his drugs sure do.

TAMPA BAY DEVIL RAYS OFF-SEASON REPORT

2006-03-15T23:42:00.000-08:00

C

Much heralded upon his break into the majors five years ago, Toby Hall seems to have hit the wall. That said, he provides adequate defense and won't swing into many strike 'em out, throw 'em out double plays. He's a Devil Rays catcher, nothing we say will make his season any worse than it's going to be. With the goat of last year's playoffs backing him, Hall will replicate last year.

1B

Travis Lee will again be dragging down what could be one of the league's most potent offenses. His slowly dwindling walk rate notwithstanding, Lee does not add offensive value at any position that doesn't require squatting or sitting. While his glove is a plus -- which the Rays' pitching staff will need -- the team hasn't had a productive first basemen since Fred McGriff. That's no reason to settle for Travis Lee's replacement-level hitting just because the team has more glaring problems. Move Huff to first base where he has been successful in limited playing time and free up an outfield spot for Joey Gathright, that is, until this guy is ready to step in. The bench fits the sitting requirement necessary to squeeze out what value Lee has.

2B

Jorge Cantu can't walk to save his life, but there are plenty of established big leaguers who can't either. A second basemen who can pound out 65 extra base hits a year with a middle of the road TTO% is all right by me.

SS

Julio Lugo must feel like he got jewed by his agent/family/etc who promised him that having a career year would be his ticket out of TB. He survived the winter meetings and now finds himself back down under with Upton still breathing down his neck. For the Rays this is not a problem. Since being exiled from Houston, Lugo has been an excellent defender and a solid offensive contributor. If Upton isn't ready this year, Lugo can carry the load, if Upton is, Lugo could be worth three times his weight in Red Sox prospects.

3B

You can only view the trade for Sean Burroughs and his lingering upside as an upgrade over this Alex Gonzalez. In 2003, Gonzalez's DWARP was over 4. Why pay a mediocre hitter $2 million to play a position he hasn't played in ten years when all his value is derived from defense? I suppose this is like asking why Tony Almeida chose to give Chris Henderson a lethal injection to the heart instead of just shooting him. Fortunately, Tony and Chuck LaMar will never have to answer these questions wherever they are today.

RF

The Rays clearly missed the window to capitalize on Aubrey Huff's value and now have an average RF on their hands. He will bounce back from last year's debacle, but we won't see his 2003 again unless the team's pitching is so bad that their opponents will simply play soft toss to reduce the strain on their arms. Whle moving him to 1B will make his declining production more glaring, subbing Gathright will essentially give the team three CFs until Delmon Young comes down to deliver the Word.

CF

PECOTA may hate on Rocco Baldelli, but the boy's first Comp is Vernon Wells and other luminaries such as Andre Dawson and Carlos Beltran follow him. The ability to hit MLB pitching at an age when most people are focusing on Faulkner and keeping track of their Via Via receipts is usually a good indicator of a long career. His ACL injury is troubling though, because he still relies more on speed than any of his esteemed comparables ever did.

LF

When Nick Johnson goes down in May or June, the Devil Rays should consider signing him to be their Hitting Instructor. If every player on this team drew 15 more walks this season, they could score 850-900 runs. This is the only thing missing from Carl Crawford's game right now. I see nothing but upside for him and I like his chances of becoming a perrenial 25hr/45sb Carlos Beltran kind of guy.

DH

Despite his resemblence to a certain free-spending stay at home dad after one too many whippets, Jonny Gomes is a thumper. Last year, BP compared him to Rob Deer and Jack Cust, however Gomes pushed his average and OBP beyond either of them. His five-year forecast on PECOTA isn't so different from Travis Hafner's.

PITCHING

Ew. For now. It is hard to believe that Kazmir is only 22 and harder still that the Mets traded him for Victor Zambrano. He threw a lot of innings last year and kept the ball in the park, but walked a lot of guys. It seems unlikely that he can throw as many innings, cut his walk rate and maintain his exceptional K rate. He will put it all together eventually, but not in 2006.

The rest of the rotation is pretty ugly despite Doug Waechter's impressive performances against the Yankees last year. Hendrickson and Fossum are innings-eaters who can't make it to 200 IP and McClung's velocity was wasted by the Rays, who rushed him to the majors. The bullpen should approach league average with Travis Harper and a young core led by promising closer Chad Orvella and a host of under-25 flamethrowers.

The D-Rays also picked up Edwin Jackson and Chuck Tiffany in exchange for the last year of Baez's contract. This was a great move for them. Baez was a misfit on this developing team and Jackson is only 22 and Tiffany 21. 2004 and 2005 were complete disasters for Jackson, but there is time to right the ship and the Devil Rays have plenty of that.

CHICAGO WHITE SOX OFF-SEASON REPORT

2006-03-10T20:49:00.000-08:00

In leading the Chicago White Sox to their first World Series in my own personal lifetime, Ozzie Guillen provided us with so many memorable moments. But even while dissing his team to the press and nearly getting knocked out of the playoffs, Guillen did as much as he had to. Retooled for 2006, the Sox will face still competition from the Indians. I like the Indians to prevail, but the White Sox have the upside to put them away early like they did last year.

P.S. I'm linking to PECOTA cards cause they are free for the White Sox. Subscribe to BP, you won't regret it.

1B

After winning a World Championship due to superior pitching, Kenny Williams suddenly found himself with a team with many conventional strengths that could still improve. He had a slugging first baseman in Paul Konerko. He leveraged championship dollars in a large media market into retaining Konerko and another aging slugger, Jim Thome. With a lot of first base talent in the market, the White Sox could probably have gotten a better player. Or alternately set themselves up to make a move on Miguel Cabrera. The Thome deal is either going to completely blow up in Williams’ face or make him look like a genius. The way Thome looked when in the lineup in Philly, and the lack of “Thome looks GREAT” stories lead me to believe he’s a lock for a .233/.350/.500. Hee Seep Choi could do that, and has the considerable chance of doing more. If Thome breaks down, the Sox have some options and could pursue a trade.

2B

When a team wins a championship, its hardiest veterans get spared from criticism. And sometimes, so does a relative newcomer. Tadahito Iguchi is a joy to watch; he’s also just a .270 EqA hitter with poor defense. Don’t be surprised if Alex Cintron finds his way onto the infield more than you’d think. And don't forget this guy, cause I did. Ozuna has more upside than either Cintron or Iguchi.

SS

Juan Uribe got an undue amount of criticism for being Juan Uribe, and the player he was allowed to be by Ozzie Guillen wasn’t much different than the player that warranted the criticism in the first place. Uribe needs U.S. Cellular to pop 20 homers a season. Fortunately, he’s got a lot of games in that particular park. He doesn’t get on-base, but in the playoffs Uribe’s defense in the field was enough to make him a valuable part of the team. Expect more of the same in 2006.

3B

Joe Crede brought the title to Chicago, something Ron Santo never did. Getting on base at a .303 clip doesn’t bring you closer to titles. Crede fits with Williams’ philosophy which is, try to get guys who can at the very least give you 20 homer seasons and you are certain to score SOME runs. Crede’s playoff heroics deserve to be part of his resume, too.

C

A.J. Pierzynski. Anyone who knows anything knows that Pierzynski is a massive tool whose appearances in TNA (Total Nonstop Action) Wrestling were decidedly uncool. Pierzynski is no spring chicken – age thirty-four is where catchers go to die, and Williams’ backup plan on that account goes by the name of Chris Widger. He’s not exactly a bopper, and he’ll be lucky to top 20 homers this year.

RF

Perhaps Jermaine Dye’s MVP in the WS wasn’t justified he bopped 30 homers and played plus defense, enough to be a league-average or better outfielder. His closest PECOTA comparable is Larry Parrish. Because he’s more athletic, having the build of a Ben Gordon more than Joe Torre, Dye should age better than Parrish did.

CF

Brian Anderson is league-average as well, are we getting the picture here yet?

LF

The Podster’s World Series moment was his towering home-run shot in Game Two. Still, he can’t hit the ball, and is turning into a negative on the basepaths, where his 72 percent success rate when he runs is just below 75 percent, the success rate you must achieve to add, not detract from your ballclub’s run-scoring. He also just had double hernia surgery, which isn't pleasant. In this lineup Scott Podsednik is yet another liability. Why was I so bullish about this team in the opener?

PITCHING

Oh yeah, that was why. With five starters proven to be durable and effective, plus a sixth one who may be the best of them all in Brandon McCarthy, the Sox literally have pitching coming out of their ears. Using top prospect Chris Young, who didn’t have a place to play in Chicago and had more flaws than the more-ready Brian Anderson, they swapped out El Duque, a notoriously injury-prone overpriced starter, for Javier Vasquez, a pitcher capable of a Cy-Young caliber season. Jon Garland seemed to establish a new level of effectiveness, and Mark Buerhle used the playoffs to show why the quick-worker is one of the best southpaws on the junior circuit. The bullpen’s even scarier. While not even out of prospect status, Bobby Jenks already has World Series moments in his resume. That kind of confidence in himself mixed with his stuff is why the Sox have the best bullpen in the league.

A league-average offense or better plus dominant starting pitching has always been a recipe for success in the playoffs, and I sure as hell wouldn’t want to play this team if I got there. As a whole the Sox are a determined unit devoted to their manager who will play above-average defense and offense and don’t let up in a short series. (This even when they were down 2 games to Bobby Valentine’s Japanese champions in Diamond Mine Baseball.) The serious problem they have is Mark Shapiro, who is shaping a dynasty in the unsuspecting Midwestern city of Cleveland. They may not be able to out-hit Cleveland’s fearsome lineup over the course of the full season. I don’t like the Sox to make the playoffs again, but if they do, don’t be surprised if I name them the favorite.

DID YOU EVER KNOW THAT YOU'RE MY HERO

2006-03-10T04:34:00.000-08:00

As if we needed more proof of Big George's generosity.

THOUGHTS ON TRAGIC WBC LOSS, LIST OF TEN WHO ARE MOST FUN TO WATCH

2006-03-09T19:53:00.000-08:00

Was somebody thinking to themselves, "You know, A-Rod has had such success on the big stage, let's bring him into the WBC!"

It's like, where's Joe Carter when you need him?

And Al Leiter!?

Is this George Steinbrenner's secret plan to bring down the WBC?

Team Performance Analysis came up with a controversial list of THE 10 TOP MLB PLAYERS TO WATCH ON THE OLD TV. Enjoy.

THE 10 TOP MLB PLAYERS TO WATCH ON THE OLD TV

No. 10 Dontrelle Willis
Dontrelle's antics on the mound are fun to watch, and his package is like, huge.

No. 9 Roy Oswalt
Oswalt's short frame etc.

No. 8 A-Rod

The new prototypical slugger, the possibility of tears at anytime
makes watching A-Rod a delight. His 10-RBI game at Yankee Stadium was a joy to watch, and his homer off Schilling at Fenway wasn't bad
either. A-Rod also works the count, making it more likely you'll catch one of his ABs. No one works harder to be the best than Alex.

No. 7 - Scott Rolen or is that too boring...Jim Edmonds maybe

No. 6 - David Wells' biography

No. 5 - Derek Jeter

Break out your bronze molding kit, because a legendary hero is standing in front of you. Jeter is the One. He expands the program of the game with vision and instincts matched only by Jordan and Gretzky. Game 3 of the 2001 ALDS was a moment analogous only to Moses bringing down the commandments. Let the sabermetricians bemoan his range, I'll take the last American Hero.

No. 4 - Felix Hernandez

King Felix is the fantasy sleeper you have nightmares about. You
wake up in the middle of the night and you're like, "Shouldn't I have taken him in the 5th round of my fantasy draft?" and bite your pillow. With a plus-plus fastball, and a plus plus plus plus curveball, King Felix is the only reason to even venture anywhere near the Pacific Northwest, unless you're the barber that should trim Adam's Morrison's gross stache.

No. 3 Shawn Green

Shawn Green didn't have a bar mitzvah, but he did have a few hundred publicity releases from Jewish organizations written about him. Perhaps only short of Goldberg when you think of Jewish athletes with name recognition, Green's sweet left-handed stroke makes you think Albert Brooks might have a chance to rake something like .315/.409/.566. Green will keep doing his thing in Arizona, playing before the emerging Jewish retirement community that houses the only extant statue of the last Jewish ballplayer.

No. 2 Manny Ramirez

No. 1 Jose Reyes

Honorable Mentions: Sheffield, Vlad, Pujols and Ichiro.

WELCOMING OUR NEW CONTRIBUTOR; MARLINS OFF-SEASON REPORT

2006-02-25T15:04:00.000-08:00

I'm so pleased to welcome one of the finest reporters working today to "Performance Analysis." Mr. Gideon Friedman comes to us with an insane work ethic, and he's not just a tools goof. He once volunteered to have Brian Cashman's demon baby. He's a devout Yankee fan which is bad enough, but he more than makes up for that in jokes about Bernie Williams' limp noodle of an arm. Welcome, Gideon.

Without further ado, let's start cranking out these off-season reports. As usual, look in the archive for YOUR favorite team.

Florida Marlins Off-Season Report

The Marlins, two time winners of the World Championship in their short history, have generated plenty of examples of how to rebuild from nothing into a championship caliber team.

The question is, is this going to be another textbook example?

I’m pessimistic.

I didn’t like what they got for most of their players.

This team is going to have an ugly season, and forgive me for being skeptical that Giradi’s no facial hair rule is going to save this season.

1B

Mike Jacobs 3 to 1 strikeout ratio means it’s going to be hard for him to be anything other than league average at 1st. If he hit 40 homers, it probably wouldn’t matter. Jacobs will earn his playing time.

RF

Jeremy Hermida is going to be one of the most interesting players to watch this coming season. Just so my Marlins readers don’t have to buy the $35 Baseball America Prospect Handbook:

As a high school student in the Atlanta area, Hermida was ticketed for Clemson along with local rival Jeff Francoeur until the Marlins took him 11th overall in the 2002 draft. Hermida earned Baseball America’s nod as the top pure hitter on the prep level and the fourth-best position player overall. Scouts compared him to Eric Chavez, Paul O’Neill, and Andy Van Slyke, though Hermida himself preferred Shawn Green as a role model. He signed without acrimony for $2,012,500. His father groomed his hitting stroke from a young age, converting him from a right-handed batter to a lefty at age 4. Hermida was working with wood bats ate age 13, and counted former big leaguer Terry Harper among his early private instructors. All those lessons paid further dividends in 2005, when he played in the Futures Game, was MVP of the Southern League all-star game and hit a grand slam off Cardinals right-hander Al Reyes in his first big league plate appearance on Aug 31.

They go on to name him the favorite for Rookie of the Year. There, I saved you $35 bucks.

SS

The mindset for scouting Hanley Ramirez as the centerpiece of a deal to unload Mike Lowell’s contract and the injury-prone Josh Beckett was to acquire an up-the-middle player, filling other positions with their farm system. Ramirez is an enigmatic prospect – he’s not much of a hitter, and his glovework would be league average or worse. He is still young, but Beckett might have been used to acquire a better prospect. Hey! One was being traded around this summer. Coincidentally the very team they were dealing with had him for a short time! Anybody want to think that if their owners weren’t so mental, the Marlins could have gotten better value for Beckett? Why was Schuerholz sleeping on this one? The Braves even needed a friggin’ major league 3rd baseman in return.

Using Nate Silver’s incredible forecasting tool UPSIDE, Ramirez ranks seventh among shortstop prospects. It would have been interesting to see if they could have gotten any of the top three in a deal for Beckett, if they had their hearts set on a SS.

Player UPSIDE

1. Joel Guzman, SS, LAN (21) 175.6
2. Eric Aybar, SS, LAA (22) 161.2
3. Brandon Wood, SS, LAA (21) 161.2

3B

Conventional wisdom had it that Miguel Cabrera would be making a move to third. I’m not that enthused with that idea, filing under the heading of “if ain’t broke don’t fix it.” Wes Helms figures to get plenty of at-bats on this team, and PECOTA has him being short of league average, but really, it’s going to be tough to distinguish between him and Bill Mueller’s season.

LF

This is Cabrera’s future, anyway.

His stars and scrubs chart is way out of control. The green represent superstar, and it’s a veritable forest. He’s settled in as a .320 EqA player, and the scary thing is, he’s got considerable upside. He’s…23.

2B

They’d be really dumb to let Pokey Reese take this job, although considering their shortstop situation, I’d wager he may well get time there too. Reese had a hard upbringing, so I’ll forgive him his other flaws. (Consider this my concession to “make-up.”) Defensively, he’s a help.

C

Prospect Josh Willingham, ranked No. 11 in the Marlins system by BA, stands to get his first serious playing time. He’s only been catching with 2002, so expect his career at catcher, and probably his career as a whole to be short-lived. He’s still not the worst late-round fantasy choice out there, as he has a decent mix of offensive skills, including plate patience.

CF

From all the depth charts, it appear Eric Reed will be getting a lot of playing time in center. He’s not well-known to me, so if this is really true, it’s not heartening that his 90-percentile PECOTA projection is a line of .278/.326/.394 with four homers.

ROTATION and BULLPEN

To avoid the perennial fate of the Devil Rays, who don’t have huge problem scoring runs but have serious issues when it comes to keeping them off the board, the Marlins decided to restock their farm system by pursuing a bevy of young arms and hoping some of them worked out. While the quality of prospects didn’t exactly blow you away, the outgoing talent doesn’t exactly blow you away either. Forgetting about the Beckett deal, an inaffordable Carlos Delgado, Juan Pierre, Juan Castillo netted Yusmeiro Petit, Reynel Pinto, Travis Bowyer, Ricky Nolasco who may be able to contribute right now.

The rotation, outside of Dontrelle Willis (himself not the safest bet), consists of Mitre, Moehler, Vargas and Johnson, and Joe Giradi’s wildest prayers only involve the phrase “league-average.”

In other words, it’s going to be a long season for Fish fans.

FRONT SEAT MOM

2006-02-25T06:04:00.000-08:00

PARIS, FRANCE -- This is roving reporter Gideon Friedman signing in. This week I am in France where they are STILL talking about Charlie Lea's May 10 1981 no-hitter against the Giants.

First, we should address George Steinbrenner's bold, almost heroic claim that the Yankees will win the Series this year. The man defines bravery. He gave a poor, white, red state kid money, COME ON.

On the field, this lineup promises to be one of the best in recent memory. While Damon may be a sabermetric drag on the lineup, this is more of a testament to the five hitters who will follow him. Spots 7, 8 and 9 will be held by Posada, Cano and Williams or Phillips depending on how long Jason spent on Skype with Jeremy the night before.

The bottom third of the order creates the first real opportunity for Torre to exert what can only be called ultra passive aggressive behavior towards the fanbase and management. He will certainly be tempted to drop Posada or Bernie there to push their counting stats towards HOF levels. The spot will provide great RBI opportunities, but this is largely irrelevant for the Yankees. We all know RBIs are irrelevant themselves although they still hold some trade value, but Cano is the only guy of the bunch with trade value and he won't be going anywhere, especially after Nate Silver's glowing endorsement, "Cano has a 10% chance to make the Hall of Fame."

Cano is the most interesting choice for the 7 spot, despite Torre's predilection for grooming franchise players in the 9 hole (Bernie 1993, Jeter 1996). Cano derived most of his value from his BA last year and stands to benefit most from hitting with guys on. Posada should continue to post an OBP of .350+ and the combination of a rested, rejuvenated Bernie and the adequate Phillips should provide the 9 hole with something approaching its 1998 production levels.

"WE GO ON A JOURNEY TOGETHER"

2006-02-21T00:50:00.000-08:00

We here at Performance Analysis have spent the winter hibernating our balls. And we're happy to get back into the fray. Jim Bowden will be made fun of. Mp3 blogs gonna be referenced. I'll probably swear a ton and piss off my Christian fanbase. But it's in the name of the game. Just like the quote I titled this very post with. It's from the movie "Sphere." And a baseball -- is undoubtedly a sphere.

Sure, sometimes it's hard for me to blog. 4 of every five blogs dies right away. I read that somewhere, maybe in New York magazine, potentially in a porno rag.

But I perservere. I think of starving families, working day and night to afford the money to pay for internet so they can read this blog. For them, I'm the number one content provider. The kids practically fucking memorized the Peter Gammons column I posted. When I post a statistic, even if it's fradulent, I sound credible, especially when you're getting a head rush because you can't even afford soup and other basic staples.

In this spirit, we're going from pitchers and catchers to one final team that's going to win the motherfragging World Series.

Since most rosters are set, I may as well make my picks. BEFORE THE MAINSTREAM MEDIA STEALS ANOTHER ONE OF MY IDEAS.

AL

Yanks, Red Sox, White Sox, Athletics

Yanks v. White Sox, Red Sox v. Athletics
White Sox v. Athletics
White Sox

NL

Mets, Braves, Dodgers and Cardinals
Mets v. Dodgers, Braves v. Cardinals
Mets v. Braves
Mets

Mets celebrate on the bloodied carcass of Ozzie Guillen. Hurrah!