WELCOMING OUR NEW CONTRIBUTOR; MARLINS OFF-SEASON REPORT

I'm so pleased to welcome one of the finest reporters working today to "Performance Analysis." Mr. Gideon Friedman comes to us with an insane work ethic, and he's not just a tools goof. He once volunteered to have Brian Cashman's demon baby. He's a devout Yankee fan which is bad enough, but he more than makes up for that in jokes about Bernie Williams' limp noodle of an arm. Welcome, Gideon.

Without further ado, let's start cranking out these off-season reports. As usual, look in the archive for YOUR favorite team.


Florida Marlins Off-Season Report

The Marlins, two time winners of the World Championship in their short history, have generated plenty of examples of how to rebuild from nothing into a championship caliber team.

The question is, is this going to be another textbook example?

I’m pessimistic.

I didn’t like what they got for most of their players.

This team is going to have an ugly season, and forgive me for being skeptical that Giradi’s no facial hair rule is going to save this season.

1B

Mike Jacobs 3 to 1 strikeout ratio means it’s going to be hard for him to be anything other than league average at 1st. If he hit 40 homers, it probably wouldn’t matter. Jacobs will earn his playing time.

RF

Jeremy Hermida is going to be one of the most interesting players to watch this coming season. Just so my Marlins readers don’t have to buy the $35 Baseball America Prospect Handbook:

As a high school student in the Atlanta area, Hermida was ticketed for Clemson along with local rival Jeff Francoeur until the Marlins took him 11th overall in the 2002 draft. Hermida earned Baseball America’s nod as the top pure hitter on the prep level and the fourth-best position player overall. Scouts compared him to Eric Chavez, Paul O’Neill, and Andy Van Slyke, though Hermida himself preferred Shawn Green as a role model. He signed without acrimony for $2,012,500. His father groomed his hitting stroke from a young age, converting him from a right-handed batter to a lefty at age 4. Hermida was working with wood bats ate age 13, and counted former big leaguer Terry Harper among his early private instructors. All those lessons paid further dividends in 2005, when he played in the Futures Game, was MVP of the Southern League all-star game and hit a grand slam off Cardinals right-hander Al Reyes in his first big league plate appearance on Aug 31.

They go on to name him the favorite for Rookie of the Year. There, I saved you $35 bucks.

SS

The mindset for scouting Hanley Ramirez as the centerpiece of a deal to unload Mike Lowell’s contract and the injury-prone Josh Beckett was to acquire an up-the-middle player, filling other positions with their farm system. Ramirez is an enigmatic prospect – he’s not much of a hitter, and his glovework would be league average or worse. He is still young, but Beckett might have been used to acquire a better prospect. Hey! One was being traded around this summer. Coincidentally the very team they were dealing with had him for a short time! Anybody want to think that if their owners weren’t so mental, the Marlins could have gotten better value for Beckett? Why was Schuerholz sleeping on this one? The Braves even needed a friggin’ major league 3rd baseman in return.

Using Nate Silver’s incredible forecasting tool UPSIDE, Ramirez ranks seventh among shortstop prospects. It would have been interesting to see if they could have gotten any of the top three in a deal for Beckett, if they had their hearts set on a SS.

Player UPSIDE

1. Joel Guzman, SS, LAN (21) 175.6
2. Eric Aybar, SS, LAA (22) 161.2
3. Brandon Wood, SS, LAA (21) 161.2


3B

Conventional wisdom had it that Miguel Cabrera would be making a move to third. I’m not that enthused with that idea, filing under the heading of “if ain’t broke don’t fix it.” Wes Helms figures to get plenty of at-bats on this team, and PECOTA has him being short of league average, but really, it’s going to be tough to distinguish between him and Bill Mueller’s season.

LF

This is Cabrera’s future, anyway.

His stars and scrubs chart is way out of control. The green represent superstar, and it’s a veritable forest. He’s settled in as a .320 EqA player, and the scary thing is, he’s got considerable upside. He’s…23.

2B

They’d be really dumb to let Pokey Reese take this job, although considering their shortstop situation, I’d wager he may well get time there too. Reese had a hard upbringing, so I’ll forgive him his other flaws. (Consider this my concession to “make-up.”) Defensively, he’s a help.

C

Prospect Josh Willingham, ranked No. 11 in the Marlins system by BA, stands to get his first serious playing time. He’s only been catching with 2002, so expect his career at catcher, and probably his career as a whole to be short-lived. He’s still not the worst late-round fantasy choice out there, as he has a decent mix of offensive skills, including plate patience.

CF

From all the depth charts, it appear Eric Reed will be getting a lot of playing time in center. He’s not well-known to me, so if this is really true, it’s not heartening that his 90-percentile PECOTA projection is a line of .278/.326/.394 with four homers.


ROTATION and BULLPEN

To avoid the perennial fate of the Devil Rays, who don’t have huge problem scoring runs but have serious issues when it comes to keeping them off the board, the Marlins decided to restock their farm system by pursuing a bevy of young arms and hoping some of them worked out. While the quality of prospects didn’t exactly blow you away, the outgoing talent doesn’t exactly blow you away either. Forgetting about the Beckett deal, an inaffordable Carlos Delgado, Juan Pierre, Juan Castillo netted Yusmeiro Petit, Reynel Pinto, Travis Bowyer, Ricky Nolasco who may be able to contribute right now.

The rotation, outside of Dontrelle Willis (himself not the safest bet), consists of Mitre, Moehler, Vargas and Johnson, and Joe Giradi’s wildest prayers only involve the phrase “league-average.”

In other words, it’s going to be a long season for Fish fans.

FRONT SEAT MOM

PARIS, FRANCE -- This is roving reporter Gideon Friedman signing in. This week I am in France where they are STILL talking about Charlie Lea's May 10 1981 no-hitter against the Giants.

First, we should address George Steinbrenner's bold, almost heroic claim that the Yankees will win the Series this year. The man defines bravery. He gave a poor, white, red state kid money, COME ON.

On the field, this lineup promises to be one of the best in recent memory. While Damon may be a sabermetric drag on the lineup, this is more of a testament to the five hitters who will follow him. Spots 7, 8 and 9 will be held by Posada, Cano and Williams or Phillips depending on how long Jason spent on Skype with Jeremy the night before.

The bottom third of the order creates the first real opportunity for Torre to exert what can only be called ultra passive aggressive behavior towards the fanbase and management. He will certainly be tempted to drop Posada or Bernie there to push their counting stats towards HOF levels. The spot will provide great RBI opportunities, but this is largely irrelevant for the Yankees. We all know RBIs are irrelevant themselves although they still hold some trade value, but Cano is the only guy of the bunch with trade value and he won't be going anywhere, especially after Nate Silver's glowing endorsement, "Cano has a 10% chance to make the Hall of Fame."

Cano is the most interesting choice for the 7 spot, despite Torre's predilection for grooming franchise players in the 9 hole (Bernie 1993, Jeter 1996). Cano derived most of his value from his BA last year and stands to benefit most from hitting with guys on. Posada should continue to post an OBP of .350+ and the combination of a rested, rejuvenated Bernie and the adequate Phillips should provide the 9 hole with something approaching its 1998 production levels.

"WE GO ON A JOURNEY TOGETHER"

We here at Performance Analysis have spent the winter hibernating our balls. And we're happy to get back into the fray. Jim Bowden will be made fun of. Mp3 blogs gonna be referenced. I'll probably swear a ton and piss off my Christian fanbase. But it's in the name of the game. Just like the quote I titled this very post with. It's from the movie "Sphere." And a baseball -- is undoubtedly a sphere.

Sure, sometimes it's hard for me to blog. 4 of every five blogs dies right away. I read that somewhere, maybe in New York magazine, potentially in a porno rag.

But I perservere. I think of starving families, working day and night to afford the money to pay for internet so they can read this blog. For them, I'm the number one content provider. The kids practically fucking memorized the Peter Gammons column I posted. When I post a statistic, even if it's fradulent, I sound credible, especially when you're getting a head rush because you can't even afford soup and other basic staples.

In this spirit, we're going from pitchers and catchers to one final team that's going to win the motherfragging World Series.

Since most rosters are set, I may as well make my picks. BEFORE THE MAINSTREAM MEDIA STEALS ANOTHER ONE OF MY IDEAS.

AL

Yanks, Red Sox, White Sox, Athletics

Yanks v. White Sox, Red Sox v. Athletics
White Sox v. Athletics
White Sox

NL

Mets, Braves, Dodgers and Cardinals
Mets v. Dodgers, Braves v. Cardinals
Mets v. Braves
Mets

Mets celebrate on the bloodied carcass of Ozzie Guillen. Hurrah!

GAMMONS

We post Peter Gammons' articles here because we love Peter with a passion. While always getting a reputation for being a super-steady and trust-worthy reporter, we value Gammons more as the ultimate dude who loves gossip. He's also an amazing columnist. Here's his most recent, enjoy.

A whole new ballgame in '06
By Peter Gammons
Special to ESPN.com

Feb. 12

In the Northeast, there is little to do but stay inside and read Doris Kearns Goodwin's monumental biography of Abraham Lincoln. It is the definitive study of learning, and in its own way a manual for all general managers torn between doing the right and the popular. Meanwhile, outside is a reminder why it is a good time for pitchers and catchers to report -- from Tucson, Ariz., to Winter Haven, Fla.

This spring, there is a lot that's new, a list that for the fifth straight spring training does not include an owner for the ExpoNationals. First, we have the World Baseball Classic, a terrific idea for the game's worldwide marketing. We are constantly reminded that the event has no perfect formula. As rosters are constructed piecemeal, one suggestion is to focus less on who may be coming up sore (players do get hurt every spring) or why South Africa is in, and focus more on this initial WBC being a trial run that eventually will be more significant in growing the Asian, Latin and European markets than any U.S. television ratings will demonstrate in the shadow of March Madness.

Next, we have the continued specter of weaning the sport off the steroids of the '90s and the amphetamines of the last 50 years. Medical friends remind me that the chemists who create the designer drugs make a lot more money than those who devise the tests, so don't expect the prototypical body to belong to John McDonald. As for amphetamines, some have suggested that we will see a lot of 2-1 games in August. Jayson Stark thinks we may see Starbucks and Peet's in every clubhouse, and we shall see how players find new ways to get "Start Me Up/I'll Never Stops," such as the growing Ritalin abuse.

Jim Leyland is back, managing the Tigers. Grady Little, too, with the Dodgers. Jim Tracy joyfully fled L.A. for Pittsburgh. Longtime Angels lieutenant Joe Maddon has been entrusted with leading the Devil Rays out of their Dark Ages, while Joe Girardi is entrusted with the new reconstruction of the Marlins.

Meanwhile, there are dozens of significant old faces in new places: Mike Piazza in San Diego; Nomar Garciaparra, Rafael Furcal and Bill Mueller in LA; Matt Morris in San Francisco; Billy Wagner, Carlos Delgado and Paul Lo Duca in Queens; Alfonso Soriano in Washington; Johnny Damon in the South Bronx; Coco Crisp, Josh Beckett and Mike Lowell in Boston; Kris and Anna Benson in Baltimore; A.J. Burnett, B.J. Ryan, Lyle Overbay, Troy Glaus and Bengie Molina in Toronto; Jim Thome and Javier Vazquez on Chicago's South Side; Frank Thomas and Milton Bradley in Oakland; Kevin Millwood and Brad Wilkerson in Texas ...

But we still don't know if we'll see Roger Clemens, Rafael Palmeiro or Sammy Sosa again, or what we'll see in Barry Bonds.

Which leads to the first poll of the season. More than 50 executives, scouts, managers and coaches were asked three questions:

Of all the rookies and young players in their first full seasons, which do you believe will eventually be "difference makers"?

1. Jeremy Hermida, OF, Florida: "If there is a can't-miss hitting prospect, it is Hermida," says one AL GM. "He's a star." Problem is, in 2006, there won't be a lot around him in the Marlins' lineup other than Miguel Cabrera. GMs drool at Hermida's 111-walk/89K numbers in the minors, and his 1.017 OPS in September. With Cabrera and Hanley Ramirez and all the pitching Larry Beinfest is stockpiling, the reconstruction may not take as long as the last time the Marlins broke up the team. That is, if they don't have to move from South Beach to a strip mall in Tecumcari, N.M.

2. Francisco Liriano, LHP, Minnesota: The second gem from the A.J. Pierzynski trade is 22 years old, touches 97-98 mph, and had funky and Santana-esque numbers that included 126 hits allowed and 204 strikeouts in 167 2/3 innings in the minors. Kyle Lohse had better pitch well because Liriano and Scott Baker both could be in the Twins' rotation.

3. Felix Hernandez, RHP, Seattle: "He may have the best stuff I've ever seen," says an AL GM. "I wouldn't be surprised if he were one of the five best starters in the league this season." He turns 20 on John Keenan Day (April 8), has that sick stuff and showed last September that the 363K/119 BB/306 IP numbers are no fluke in terms of command, as he dropped 2-and-0 changeups and curveball hammers for strikes.

4. Brandon Wood, SS, LA Angels: Look, this is the future, unless he's at third base come July. Orlando Cabrera has three more years and is a great defender, and there are many teams that lust for Erick Aybar, the Angels' other shortstop prospect. But the rangy 21-year-old Wood has rare power that should only get better as he fills out -- 43 homers in the minors, 13 in 29 games in the Arizona Fall League, diligent makeup.

5. Delmon Young, OF, Tampa Bay: "If the Devil Rays didn't have so many good outfielders, he would probably be in the big leagues in April," says one scout. No question he can be an impact hitter, but the 4BB/33K numbers in Triple-A indicate a couple of months repeating Triple-A wouldn't be a bad thing.

6. B.J. Upton, SS, Tampa Bay: Between Ozzie Smith and Jimy Williams, the Rays can find out if the elder Upton can play shortstop. If he can master the footwork, he can be a monster player. He is paying the price for being rushed and moved around, but if he can play short and not be moved to third or the outfield, he will be a star. Younger brother Justin -- bigger than B.J. and very mature -- will have a very short minor-league shelf life.

7. Brian McCann, C, Atlanta: When All-Star Johnny Estrada got run over by Darin Erstad, McCann rushed in and helped the Braves finish first for the 14th consecutive full season. He had an impressive .748 OPS, handled pitchers masterfully and allowed the Braves to trade Estrada for bullpen help. Oh yes. Right behind McCann is Jarrod Saltalamacchia, rated by many as the best catching prospect in the minor leagues.

8. Jonathan Papelbon, RHP, Boston: In his second full pro season -- and second as a starter -- Papelbon shot right up to Fenway Park and was a major contributor to the Red Sox bullpen down the stretch. The organization wants him to start, to see him as a 700-out-a-year horse, and at 25, he is ready to step in and do it now. The Red Sox love his bring-it-on makeup, but one Boston official warns, "The worst thing would be to start comparing him to Roger Clemens. No one else in modern baseball history is as good as Clemens. Why should we ask a rookie to try?"

9. Prince Fielder and Rickie Weeks, Milwaukee: There may be some growing pains. Weeks has some work to do defensively. But the right side of the Brewer infield is set for years.

10. Brandon McCarthy, RHP, Chicago WS:. If Ken Williams hadn't assembled so much pitching, McCarthy would be a candidate to win 15 or more games. "He'll be in that rotation come September," says one scout. "And he'll be right there in line behind (Mark) Buehrle."

Also receiving multiple votes: Jason Kubel, OF, Minnesota; Ryan Zimmerman, 3B, Washington; Alex Gordon, 3B-OF, Kansas City; Hanley Ramirez, SS, Florida; Justin Verlander, RHP, Detroit; Jeremy Sowers, LHP, Cleveland; Jon Lester, LHP, Boston; Craig Hansen, Closer, Boston; Chris Young, CF, Arizona (too bad he broke his hand this week and will miss most of spring training); Justin Upton, SS-OF, Arizona; Erick Aybar, SS, LA Angels; Andy Marte, 3B, Cleveland; Ronny Cedeno, SS, Cubs; Felix Pie, OF, Cubs; Chad Billingsley, RHP, LA Dodgers.

Who do you believe will have a breakout season?

1. Joe Mauer, C, Minnesota: Injuries have essentially limited him to one full season, in which he had 52 extra-base hits and an .811 OPS. "His knee is fine now, and he wants to catch 135 games," says GM Terry Ryan. "If that happens, he could be the best catcher in the game," says one NL GM. "He is an extraordinary handler of pitchers, and he's an impact hitter who makes contact and drives the ball with power to the alleys."

2. Casey Kotchman,1B, LA Angels: "He is going to take off," says one coach. Injuries held him back in the minors, but he put up the rarest numbers -- more walks and more extra-base hits than strikeouts -- and Angels coaches say he's learning to lift the ball.

3. Coco Crisp, CF, Boston: "He has gone to the right place -- big crowds, pressure," says one NL GM. "He will love the attention, and as one of the best fastball hitters in the game, he will prosper in front of Manny and Ortiz." Here's his career track over the last three years: 15-24-42 doubles, 3-15-16 homers, .655-.730-.810 OPS.

4. Jeremy Reed, CF, Seattle: His .322 OBP was a disappointment, but he had the wrist injury. "Every number shows he was the best defensive center fielder in our league," says one AL official. "And he's going to hit. Just look at his history."

5. Scott Kazmir, LHP, Tampa Bay: He's put on 20 pounds, and already has 215 strikeouts in 219 major-league innings. "He's at the point in his career when his command should improve," says a scout, "and when that happens, he could be a star."

6. Brad Wilkerson, OF, Texas: OK, he fell from 32 to 11 homers, but he was hurt and played at pitcher-friendly RFK Stadium. Now get him healthy and put him in the AL's best park for left-handed batters ...

7. Mike Gonzalez, Closer, Pittsburgh: "We're giving him a chance to become one of the elite relievers," says GM Dave Littlefield. The numbers -- 101 2/3 IP, 71 H, 119 K -- speak for his stuff, and after two setup seasons he's ready to close.

8. Matt Murton, OF, Cubs: The Red Sox could not have won the 2004 World Series without including him in the Nomar Garciaparra trade, but they wish they had him back. Murton jumped from Double-A, had a .907 OPS and showed the Cubs that not only can he hit, but he can run and has makeup that's off the charts.

9. Justin Morneau, 1B, Minnesota: In a short time, Morneau has become a controversial figure. He had several injuries, but his willingness to play was questioned by teammates and the .304 OBP was distressing. But he has a big-time bat and power, and in a down time for American League first basemen, he still intrigues many in the game.

10. Erik Bedard, LHP, Baltimore: He is 12-18, 4.31 lifetime, and has yet to get past the command problems of getting from 0-and-2 to 3-and-2. But the stuff is there, and when teams like the Cubs asked for him in deals, assistant GM Jim Duquette told them he considers Bedard a potential No. 1 starter who cannot be moved until proven otherwise.

Also receiving multiple votes: Rickie Weeks, 2B, Milwaukee; Conor Jackson, 1B, Arizona; Jose Castillo, 2B, Pittsburgh; Macay McBride, LHP, Atlanta.

Who do you believe will have the biggest comebacks?

1. Eric Gagne, CL, LA Dodgers
2. Rocco Baldelli, CF, Tampa Bay
3. Frank Thomas, DH, Oakland.
4. Jim Thome, DH, Chicago WS
5. Ben Sheets, RHP, Milwaukee
6. Barry Bonds, LF, San Francisco
7. Nomar Garciaparra, 1B, LA Dodgers
8. Mike Lowell, 3B, Boston
9. Scott Rolen, 3B, St. Louis
10. Edgar Renteria, SS, Atlanta

Also receiving multiple votes: Zack Greinke, Kansas City; Kip Wells and Oliver Perez, Pittsburgh; Kerry Wood and Mark Prior, Cubs; Curt Schilling, Boston. Gagne changes the Dodgers into a major bullpen power, with Danys Baez, Yhency Brazoban and Jonathan Broxton in front of him. Thomas completely changes the A's, Rolen the Cardinals' lineup and defense, Renteria the Braves, and the Red Sox will go as far as the comebacks of Lowell, Schilling and Keith Foulke take them.

Six teams to watch

Think back to this time, last year. Other than USA Today's Bob Nightengale, did anyone think the White Sox would not only win the world championship, but end up with a case as one of the five best teams of the last two decades? Honestly, did you really believe the Athletics were a 90-win team? Or that the Braves would finish first, again? There were many of us who believed the Twins had a great chance to win the World Series.

Sure, everyone believes the Blue Jays can make a run at the Yankees and Red Sox. The White Sox and Athletics seem to be the teams most likely to make the World Series from the American League, the Cardinals in the NL.

Every season, there are dramatic surprises. Every spring, there are teams that we are curious to see for different reasons, and here are six teams I cannot wait to see unfurl:

1. Milwaukee Brewers: They finished at .500 for the first time since 1992 after averaging 69 wins a season from '99 through '04. With Fielder, Weeks, J.J. Hardy (.565 first half OPS, .865 second half) and Bill Hall, they have a strong core of young players to blend with veterans Carlos Lee, Geoff Jenkins and Corey Koskie. Now, if Ben Sheets can just stay healthy, the pitching can be good, especially with Mike Maddux handling it. Here's a question: Can you rank the top four left-handed pitchers in strikeouts last season? If you guessed Johan Santana (238), Randy Johnson (211), Doug Davis (208) and Chris Capuano (176), you won. Doug Melvin has quietly stocked the pitching with deals for Davis, Capuano, Derrick Turnbow, David Bush, Jose Capellan, Matt Wise, Tomo Ohka and Zach Jackson, and they now may have the depth to creep up from 81 toward 90 wins if the young players continue to develop.

2. Pittsburgh Pirates: Littlefield knew the rebuilding would be a slow process, but now, in 2006, his concentration on pitching may pay off. If Jim Colborn can help Kip Wells and Oliver Perez, then with Zach Duke, Paul Maholm and several other young arms and a bullpen with three power lefties, the improvement can come quickly. There is some more money, as evidenced by Littlefield holding onto the much-sought Craig Wilson. Sean Casey, Joe Randa and Jeromy Burnitz aren't impact bats, but they can play and help younger players like Chris Duffy, Jose Castillo and Ryan Doumit and provide depth around Jason Bay. The Pirates have not reached .500 since Barry Bonds left after the 1992 season, so to approach it after averaging a 67-92 record in the ensuing full seasons would be a significant step forward.

3. Arizona Diamondbacks: They have had only two straight losing seasons, but with a new regime there is a lot of hope. Where Stephen Drew, Justin Upton, Conor Jackson, Carlos Quentin, Chris Young, Dustin Nippert and Miguel Montero track from February to September will be one of the ongoing storylines. This new front office changes everything.

4. Tampa Bay Devil Rays: Maddon is not going to turn the Rays into instant contenders. But as he points out, he has a lot of offense, and Carl Crawford, Rocco Baldelli, Aubrey Huff, Jorge Cantu, Jonny Gomes, Travis Lee and Julio Lugo can hit anywhere in the lineup. There is the Sean Burroughs resurrection story, and the wait on the elder Upton and younger Young. GM Andrew Friedman has to restock the young pitching to go with Kazmir. While there are serious doubts about the two Rice No. 1 picks -- Jeff Niemann and Wade Townsend are a combined 0-6 in pro ball and are nearly 24 -- getting Edwin Jackson and Chuck Tiffany was a move in the right direction. Lugo, Huff and others will likely be traded during spring training or during the season for more young arms.

5. Texas Rangers: With Kevin Millwood, Adam Eaton and Vicente Padilla, Buck Showalter finally has some starters in front of his bullpen, as well as all the young pitchers John Hart accrued over the years. Wilkerson may find heaven, Ian Kinsler can step in at second, and if Hank Blalock can turn things around, the Rangers can make a nice run in the AL West.

6. Minnesota Twins: There had been expectations that their offseason moves would be sexier than getting Luis Castillo and Tony Batista. To get enough offense, Torii Hunter must be healthy and Mauer, Morneau, Michael Cuddyer and/or Jason Kubel must take off. If the Twins get close, they can be scary with Santana, Liriano, Carlos Silva and Brad Radke starting and Joe Nathan in front of a deep bullpen, and they can beat anyone in September and October.

The White Sox are formidable, but the AL Central is potentially a deep, talented division. If the Tigers can keep Carlos Guillen and Magglio Ordonez healthy, they are dangerous. And the Indians have some of the best young talent in the game. If their starters remain healthy, if in the second half they get help from a couple out of the Adam Miller/Jeremy Sowers/Fausto Carmona/Fernando Cabrera/Tony Sipp group, if Andy Marte emerges and if the plate discipline Franklin Gutierrez showed in Venezuela translates to the regular season, this could be a pennant-winning team.

As pitchers and catchers begin reporting Wednesday, at least half the teams in baseball believe they have a reasonable chance to make it into the league divisional series. And as Blue Jays GM J.P. Ricciardi always says, "If you can make it into the playoffs, it's like March Madness -- anything can happen."

Indeed, as someone who remembers that he picked the White Sox to finish third but was the only one on ESPN.com to pick them to beat Boston in ALDS, the reminders of how things change are fresh.

Hey, Manny Ramirez may decide to retire and save the rain forests of Brazil.

SERIE MUNDIAL CARIBENO + TRADE ANALYSIS

Thank God New York cable has Fox Sports en Espanol so I can get a little winter baseball fix. On the negative side, this games aren't exactly thrill a minute. If I'm the Baltimore Orioles, I need to see a chiropractor from shaking my head watching Tejada play in these games. Tejada actually looks horrible at shortstop. Granted, the infield's not exactly helping him, but moving Tejada to third in the next few seasons is looking like it is going to be necessary.

In the meantime, what the hell. Let's review some transactions. As I have said in the past, we are able to comment on any transaction, even if it occurs solely in Larry Brown's mind.

The Red Sox sign Alex Gonzalez to a 1 year, 3-million dollar deal.

Gonzalez passed up an offer from I believe the Orioles to play SS full-time. It's a good decision on his part. He should do decently well this season when it comes to counting stats. Calling him a defensive whiz, as the Boston Herald has taken to it, is a little much, but he has some power and that's all to the good. His last three seasons he posted EqA's of .260,.237 .248. He's a stopgap, pure and simple, but the best one available. Considering his offensive inofficiences, the Sox better hope Dustin Pedroia starts tearing up AAA.

The most annoying part of the CWS is that every time someone hits a foul ball, the sound guy plays the BOIIIIING! sound effect, which is to my mind the most disturbing sound short of styrofoam. This Dominican Republic-Puerto Rico game is in extra innings, with the DR up 5-4 and Red Sock Alex Cora on second base for the Puerto Ricans.


Mike Piazza becomes a Padre for two million dollars.

I'm glad Piazza, who is a great guy, signed because if I heard another baseball writer pen the words, "Piazza will likely to go to the AL as DH," I was gonna barf. It was always a good a chance that Piazza would stay in the NL where's he comfortable. He can still catch, and for a catcher, he's a very good hitter. For a DH, he's a horrible one. The stat that makes this the best signing for the Pads is that Piazza would have led the Padres in homers. With that said, PECOTA's not optimistic, giving Piazza a 50/50 chance of collapsing altogether.

Somewhere in Vero Beach, Florida, Nomar starts taking groundballs from Eddie Murray.

Nomar as a first baseman should be a very interesting experiment. He almost certainly will not be able to hit enough to stay at that position, so it will be interesting to see what they do with him. The Dodgers moves, widely praised by the retard mainstream media, mostly hinge on a bunch of old players with little in the way of power. At least they don't have massive contracts. Nomar is also scheduled to play first for Mexico, and while that seems to only increase his injury risk, it is probably in the Dodger's best interest to get an idea of what they're in for. Worst case scenario, they realize Nomar can't play first and start a plot to trade him. Best case scenario, Nomar gets tons of confidence before blowing out his groin again.

The Astros move towards offering Morgan Ensberg a long term deal, while simultaneously pissing Jeff Bagwell off.

Tim Purpura is one the smartest GMs in baseball. The Bagwell move is a no-brainer. The guy can't play. When it comes to Ensberg, who posted an insane 8.9 WARP season, hitting .283/.388/.557 and being the single most important factor in the Astros march to the World Series.

What should excite the Astros even further is that Ensberg is only 29, and this was his first MLB season with more than 411 at-bats. There's no reason he can't post a similar season in that bandbox. My guess is the Astros will offer something like a 4-year, 28 million dollar pact. That may be way at the high range of what they are considering -- it will be interesting to see what the final contract ends up being.

Since TNT's John Thompson is doing an AWESOME piece on Amare Stoudamire's rehab, I have to go. But before I leave you, does anybody remember when Thompson had that interview with Kevin Garnett and Garnett cried? Tremendous.