TAMPA BAY DEVIL RAYS OFF-SEASON REPORT

C

Much heralded upon his break into the majors five years ago, Toby Hall seems to have hit the wall. That said, he provides adequate defense and won't swing into many strike 'em out, throw 'em out double plays. He's a Devil Rays catcher, nothing we say will make his season any worse than it's going to be. With the goat of last year's playoffs backing him, Hall will replicate last year.


1B

Travis Lee will again be dragging down what could be one of the league's most potent offenses. His slowly dwindling walk rate notwithstanding, Lee does not add offensive value at any position that doesn't require squatting or sitting. While his glove is a plus -- which the Rays' pitching staff will need -- the team hasn't had a productive first basemen since Fred McGriff. That's no reason to settle for Travis Lee's replacement-level hitting just because the team has more glaring problems. Move Huff to first base where he has been successful in limited playing time and free up an outfield spot for Joey Gathright, that is, until this guy is ready to step in. The bench fits the sitting requirement necessary to squeeze out what value Lee has.

2B

Jorge Cantu can't walk to save his life, but there are plenty of established big leaguers who can't either. A second basemen who can pound out 65 extra base hits a year with a middle of the road TTO% is all right by me.

SS

Julio Lugo must feel like he got jewed by his agent/family/etc who promised him that having a career year would be his ticket out of TB. He survived the winter meetings and now finds himself back down under with Upton still breathing down his neck. For the Rays this is not a problem. Since being exiled from Houston, Lugo has been an excellent defender and a solid offensive contributor. If Upton isn't ready this year, Lugo can carry the load, if Upton is, Lugo could be worth three times his weight in Red Sox prospects.


3B

You can only view the trade for Sean Burroughs and his lingering upside as an upgrade over this Alex Gonzalez. In 2003, Gonzalez's DWARP was over 4. Why pay a mediocre hitter $2 million to play a position he hasn't played in ten years when all his value is derived from defense? I suppose this is like asking why Tony Almeida chose to give Chris Henderson a lethal injection to the heart instead of just shooting him. Fortunately, Tony and Chuck LaMar will never have to answer these questions wherever they are today.


RF

The Rays clearly missed the window to capitalize on Aubrey Huff's value and now have an average RF on their hands. He will bounce back from last year's debacle, but we won't see his 2003 again unless the team's pitching is so bad that their opponents will simply play soft toss to reduce the strain on their arms. Whle moving him to 1B will make his declining production more glaring, subbing Gathright will essentially give the team three CFs until Delmon Young comes down to deliver the Word.


CF

PECOTA may hate on Rocco Baldelli, but the boy's first Comp is Vernon Wells and other luminaries such as Andre Dawson and Carlos Beltran follow him. The ability to hit MLB pitching at an age when most people are focusing on Faulkner and keeping track of their Via Via receipts is usually a good indicator of a long career. His ACL injury is troubling though, because he still relies more on speed than any of his esteemed comparables ever did.


LF

When Nick Johnson goes down in May or June, the Devil Rays should consider signing him to be their Hitting Instructor. If every player on this team drew 15 more walks this season, they could score 850-900 runs. This is the only thing missing from Carl Crawford's game right now. I see nothing but upside for him and I like his chances of becoming a perrenial 25hr/45sb Carlos Beltran kind of guy.


DH

Despite his resemblence to a certain free-spending stay at home dad after one too many whippets, Jonny Gomes is a thumper. Last year, BP compared him to Rob Deer and Jack Cust, however Gomes pushed his average and OBP beyond either of them. His five-year forecast on PECOTA isn't so different from Travis Hafner's.


PITCHING

Ew. For now. It is hard to believe that Kazmir is only 22 and harder still that the Mets traded him for Victor Zambrano. He threw a lot of innings last year and kept the ball in the park, but walked a lot of guys. It seems unlikely that he can throw as many innings, cut his walk rate and maintain his exceptional K rate. He will put it all together eventually, but not in 2006.

The rest of the rotation is pretty ugly despite Doug Waechter's impressive performances against the Yankees last year. Hendrickson and Fossum are innings-eaters who can't make it to 200 IP and McClung's velocity was wasted by the Rays, who rushed him to the majors. The bullpen should approach league average with Travis Harper and a young core led by promising closer Chad Orvella and a host of under-25 flamethrowers.

The D-Rays also picked up Edwin Jackson and Chuck Tiffany in exchange for the last year of Baez's contract. This was a great move for them. Baez was a misfit on this developing team and Jackson is only 22 and Tiffany 21. 2004 and 2005 were complete disasters for Jackson, but there is time to right the ship and the Devil Rays have plenty of that.