OFFICIAL SEMI-OFFICIAL TORONTO BLUE JAYS OFF-SEASON REPORT

TORONTO BLUE JAYS OFF-SEASON REPORT

Continuing our series covering the teams of the AL East, we look to J.P. Riccardi. I am a great admirer of Riccardi, and since his moves this off-season have been widely panned it will be interesting to see if they hold up to our admitted enthusiastic scrutiny.

We start with J.P.’s most recent deal, a salary dump which allowed the Brewers to acquire Corey Koskie.

3B

With Troy Glaus coming into the fold, Koskie was the odd man out. Glaus coming over was him coming over as a third baseman. He’ll likely get many at-bats at DH as well. The question is still his durability, but even if he doesn’t pan out, the Jays only gave up O. Hudson, whose ghastly on-base percentage of .315 meant he could only be so much of an asset.

2B

With Aaron Hill, at least they aren’t paying for replacement-level. I would have preferred to deal for a 2B before moving Hudson, but there are several candidates who might make sense for the Jays, including the apparently available Tony Graffanino. Would the Jays consider moving Alexis Rios if they could get a pitcher in return as well?

1B

Sometimes you just want to add a piece, and Riccardi picked up a useful player in Lyle Overbay. From a financial perspective the deal didn’t make much sense, but Overbay is still fairly young. The last two years in EqA for Blue Jays 1B/3B/DH types:

Hillenbrand:

2004: .271
2005: .279

Hinske:

2004: .241
2005: .272

Overbay

2004: .293
2005: .284

After improving his BB/K ratio in 2005, there’s no reason Overbay can’t hit a .290 EqA again in Toronto.

RF

Alexis Rios. Reed Johnson. Alex Carnevale.

People who can’t hit. (Sidenote: I have always fantasized about what I hit in Little League. Probably something like .225/.355/.402 with walks and extra-base power. Not triples, mind you. I was also a league average third baseman. On the mound, I walked too many batters and struck out few.)

What role should Eric Hinske play, if they are really planning on having him in the outfield?

Anticipate .262/.341 with power. Hitting 7th should minimize his deficiencies. For fun, here’s all of Hinske’s Baseball Prospectus player comments up to 2003:

2003

Ricciardi raised some eyebrows when he acquired Hinske from his old employers in his first player move as Blue Jays’ GM. Hinske then went out and led American League rookies in most offensive categories. After making 15 errors in 50 games, many thought he couldn’t handle the hot corner, but sessions with new coach Brian Butterfield solved his throwing problem and Hinske made only five errors the rest of the season. Eric Chavez and Troy Glaus will make All-Star appearances hard to come by, but Hinske will be rock-solid at third base for the next half dozen years.

2002

Breaks come and go. A year ago Hinske, a 22-year-old left-handed-hitting third baseman waiting for his shot at the bigs, was traded to a club with a 22-year-old left-handed-hitting third baseman with 1,000 plate appearances in the big leagues coming off a season in which he hit 26 home runs. That was a bad break. This winter, Hinske was traded again, this time to a team with a hole at third base and a GM who understands that he's a very good ballplayer who might eventually be one of the better third basemen in the league. That was a good break. Picking up Hinske was a great way for J.P. Ricciardi to begin his career as the Blue Jays' GM.

2001

He's a big, blocky guy who can man any of the corners, infield or outfield. At third base, Eric Hinske lacks the arm strength or the range to ever be more than a temp. Now that Bill Mueller has been acquired, Hinske won’t have to be a regular, so he’ll now be evaluated as a bench player. He could have a good Denny Walling career, but seems doomed to go down the same road Dave Hansen paved.

2000

After starring at Arkansas in 1998, Hinske was a good example of a college player who didn't need to start off at Lansing. While the initial expectation was that he wouldn't stick at third base, the Cubs are willing to see if he can cut it there while also having him play both outfield corners. Showing power in the Florida State League is extremely difficult, yet Hinske showed enough to be an All-Star in his first full pro season. If he survives the jump to Double-A, he could be in Chicago by September.


CF

I saw this season as a bit of a consolidation season for Vernon Wells. He’s in the year when hitters typically have their best seasons. His spike in FRAA to 10 runs over replacement center fielder is likely a fluke – Wells is a great defender, but he’s going to have to walk more to become an elite hitter. With slugging Glaus behind him, he’ll have the chance to relax against righties, and is a good bet to up his stats from .248/.295 on the road and against righthanders.

C

Would acquiring Bengie Molina be a good move? Molina is likely to sign any two year deal he’s offered. If it’s a 2-year $10 million dollar deal it’s hard to see how it can hurt Toronto. Every New York-based sportswriter has been crooning for the Yanks to acquire Molina and move Posada to DH so that the Yanks don’t activate his option year. This is not an awful idea, but it could hurt the team. To wit:

Ben Molina EqA

2000: .252
2001: .229
2002: .214
2003: .261
2004: .254
2005: .281

What year looks like the outlier to you? Meanwhile Posada’s worst EqA before the .285 he posted last year was 1999. If the Yankees are really in the win-now mode, they’ll pass on Molina and eat the money. It looks like it saves the Yanks a lot more money than it does, creating a problem that George’s bank account can handle.

LF

To the extent that Frank Catalanatto is going to suit up this year, the question is…why?
Even considering he’s only one half of a platoon (the half that can’t play D), is 7 homers in 388 at-bats really not available on the free agent market? His at-bats would be better served going elsewhere.

SS

Getting the large share of the at-bats at shortstop, Adams wasn’t a total disaster, though the Jays had hoped for more. Only 24, his burgeoning doubles power may yet allow him to break through and become an asset. I’d take his offensive potential over Willy Taveras any day, and Taveras was nearly rookie of the year. Spelling him against lefties would seem risk-averse considering his age. His defense can also improve.

ROTATION

Roy Halladay is a stud number one starter, and after him comes the suprising lefty Gustavo Chacin. A.J. Burnett is a good bet to have a breakout season, and the Jays feature reliable innings eaters in Ted Lilly and Josh Towers. Altogether, the Jays rotation is the equal of an aging Yankee fraternity, combined with question marks and almost assured mediocrity of Clement, Wells and Arroyo. Trading Dave Bush wasn’t much of a sacrifice. In addition the free agent market hasn’t been kind to innings eaters, plus the Jays have no shortage of arms.

BULLPEN

The Jays bullpen is almost stocked with plus arms ready to contribute in big league bullpens, a situation that their AL East contenders would kill to have. The Jays are the anti-Mariners when it comes to player development. I’m particularly high on Brandon League and their second biggest acquisition, B.J. Ryan. Outside of some David Ortiz magic and some mentally retarded Joe Torre level-managing by Sam Perlozzo where he left Ryan in to get massacred in like, the eighth inning, there’s no other bullpen arm you’d rather have. All things considered, the Yankees may regret spending their money on Damon instead of bringing Ryan to New York.

All in all, the Jays are the second best team in the AL East, and could surprise a lot of people if the injury bug bites New York. I see can’t see the Yankees not winning 95 games.